UMich Survey Shows Depressed Democrats Weighing Down Sentiment

By Tyler Durden

After August's collapse, UMich Sentiment survey was expected to bounce a little (most notably in a rebound of expectations) and a little it did.

Oddly, the headline beat expectations handily (92.0 vs 90.8 exp and up from prior 89.8), but both current and future expectations disappointed expectations (current 106.9 vs 107.8 and future 82.4 vs 85.2 exp).

Source: Bloomburg

Source: Bloomburg

"The data do indicate that consumers anticipate that the Fed will cut interest rates next week, with net declines in interest rates more frequently expected at present than anytime since the depths of the Great Recession in February 2009 (see the chart). These expectations are likely to diminish the impact on spending from a quarter-point rate cut, but if rates remain unchanged, it may increase negative reactions by consumers."

It appears the weakness is driven by Democrats (weakest since the survey began)...

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