The A-B-C of Trump's Foreign Policy Agenda
The only logical method the Russian Analyst can explain why Trump is determined to improve relations with Russia -- despite increasingly fanatical opposition from the legacy media and the Anglo-American deep state it serves (even as he confronts Iran) -- is the following:
A) Trump felt he needed to extend an olive branch to Putin before repeating his North Korea playbook of ‘fire and fury’ threats to bring Iran's mullahs to the negotiating table. But the recent North Korea story means the latest all caps tweet is likely to be greeted more with eye rolls than people trembling that the USA is about to nuke Iran.
B) As we’ve repeated several times here at RogueMoney, the interests and billionaires like Sheldon Adelson standing behind Trump represent the ‘Zionist’ wing of the ‘Anglo-Zionist Empire’ revolting against the British-centric faction that dominates the fake liberal media and, as the FBI’s exposed deference to ex-MI6 agent scumbag Christopher Steele in the FOIA released Carter Page FISA warrant demonstrates, the U.S. intelligence agencies as well. Despite the FBI knowing full well that Steele, a foreigner not permitted to vote or donate in America elections, was engaged in opposition research commissioned by Hillary Clinton and was leaking it to the press, they relied upon Steele's work heavily in the visible portions of the warrant. The Bureau's counterintelligence agents led by the now disgraced Peter Strzok rated Steele's fanfic work product with high confidence.
The New York Times and the Democrats (but I repeat myself) furious spin that really damning evidence concerning Trump campaign volunteer Carter Page is yet to be revealed in redacted portions of the released FISA warrant is belied by the fact that Page has never been indicted for violating the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA). Neither has the President's ex-lawyer Michael Cohen, who recently hired old a former crony of the Clintons in attorney Lanny Davis to help him 'flip' against the President. Despite seemingly turning against his former patron in Trump, Cohen has not confessed to the Steele Dossier accusation of meeting Russian agents in Prague. Nor has Robert Mueller, notwithstanding some fake news from the Russiagate clickbaiters at McClatchy, been able to prove Cohen lied when he denied going to Prague. That means we can easily conclude major planks of the Steele Dossier, which the FBI contrary to its Congressional and media shills denials used to justify its four-time approved FISA warrant application, are horseshit.
If four Republican appointed judges signed off on these garbage warrants anyway, it strongly suggest the FISA court is in fact the deep state rubber stamping body that critics have called it dating back to Snowden's revelations in 2013. For now, the Democrats can take solace in their dominance of the #CarterPage hashtag on Twitter, before Fox News righteously hammers them and the deep state this week.
C) Oil and avoiding an economic recovery wrecking, 2007-08 redux energy price spike amidst the intentional pressure Trump's team is placing to collapse the regimes in Venezuela and Iran is another critical factor. See our article "План Трампа: Cooperation Between the U.S. and Russian Petrostates?" to better understand the context for Putin's quite serious offer to make the U.S., Russia and American Gulf allies led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE into a new super OPEC. As V the Guerrilla Economist explained on the July 21, 2018 Coast to Coast AM radio program and in his review of our article on the morning show, expanded fracking and energy exports are integral to Trump's MAGA agenda. Frackers need for cheap money to refinance their loans is another reason, along with high corporate/government debt loads propping up the housing and stock/bond markets, why Trump is criticizing the Fed for raising rates.
As The New Yorker and Israeli media now admit, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and the UAE have all made their peace with Putin and the Russians dominating Syria for the foreseeable future. The fact that Trump views U.S. non-NATO allies as useful and NATO itself as a useless liability unless it can boost American arms or LNG sales to Europe is a geopolitical reality that all the screeching and howling about ‘treason’ and ‘what does Putin have on Trump’ aired C(IA)News Network and (GE military industrial complex loss leader P)MSNBC cannot change. Trump's recent line to sympathetic Fox News host Tucker Carlson about Montenegro, while coming out garbled and stirring up more predictable Twitter/cable news outrage, appeared to be a hint that some advisers may have told him about ethnic tensions between the Montenegrins and their NATO member neighbors in Albania.
Trump Clearly Only Sees Putin and Xi (and Maybe Japan's Abe) as True World Leaders and Equals, Rather Than Annoying Vassals and Trade Rivals
Since his debut as a national figure on television advocating for nuclear reduction talks with the Soviets while getting tough with the Japanese over autos in the 1980s, Trump has been an economic nationalist and realist. Trump sees fierce competition between states as both natural and healthy — a major reason why he appears through body language to respect Putin in ways he clearly does not any (post)Western leader, including French President Emanuel Macron.
In Trump’s body language only Putin and Xi stand as equals, whereas other Western leaders especially Great Britain’s Theresa May, Canada’s Justin Trudeau and Germany’s Angela Merkel are annoying (at best) vassals or trade rivals. Shinzo Abe probably has the best working relationship with Trump of any U.S. allied leader, but he isn't in the same category as Putin/Xi. The fact that Trump only sees Putin and Xi as world leaders on equal footing with himself makes his bellicose rhetoric toward Iran, a key trade partner for both the Russians and Chinese, all the more cognitively dissonant. Especially while the dismantlement of North Korea's nuclear program which requires Chinese cooperation is far from a done deal, and Beijing is buying up the Iranian oil U.S. vassals in Europe and new partner in India are refusing.
Rosen-steamed: How Can Trump Substantially Improve U.S.-Russia Relations When Cabinet Members or Their Deputies Are Doing Everything Possible to Sabotage Any Detente?
Thanks to the insanity equating any agreement reached between Trump and Putin with betraying America, Mom and apple pie, most of what we know about verbal agreements reached in Helsinki comes from the Russians, who said Syria was at the top of the agenda (something we already knew before the summit):
Asked about Russian claims that agreements had been reached, a National Security Council spokesman said: "As President Trump stated, the two sides agreed that their national security council staffs will follow up on the presidents' meetings, and these discussions are underway. There were no commitments to undertake any concrete action, beyond agreement that both sides should continue discussions."
The spokesman, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said that the NSC and its Russian counterparts were "continuing a working-level dialogue" to review suggestions by Putin for a new "cyber-group" and "restarting a counterterrorism group." The two leaders also discussed forming groups of businesspeople and of retired diplomatic and military officials to provide ideas for cooperation, the administration has said.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, speaking to reporters at the United Nations after meetings on North Korea, said that "there was a discussion between President Trump and President Putin about the resolution in Syria and how we might get the refugees back," but he did not provide details. -- The Washington Langley/Bezos Post
Notwithstanding teeth gnashing about Trump's 'surrender' to Putin on Twitter and CNN, Russian proposals for a referendum in the Donbass on whether to stay or leave Ukraine, as a permanent settlement of the conflict; or to have former Ambassador Michael McFaul questioned by Russian officials were dismissed by Pompeo and the State Department. Russian evidence against British subject Bill Browder, and Putin's allegations that Browder laundered $400 million into the Clinton Foundation or Hillary Clinton campaign, also seemingly went nowhere. Nonetheless, in a telling response of how panicked the deep state was over Putin having the chance to accuse its agents of crimes, McCainiac Republican Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) joined with several Democrats to insist Trump's interpreter for the sessions with Putin testify before Congress.
This unprecedented demand is unlikely to obtain enough votes for subpoenas to be issued, thereby shading the upcoming White House summit Trump has invited Putin to sometime after the mid-term elections. That invitation apparently caught Director of National Intelligence and former old boy network Senator Dan Coats of Indiana off guard during the Aspen Security Conference, as we was being interviewed by the wife of ex-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, Andrea Mitchell. The Deputy turned de facto Attorney General of the United States ('Mr. Magoo' Jeff Sessions seemingly doing very little these days) Rod Rosenstein earned more brownie points with the legacy media by embarrassing his nominal boss the President, indicting alleged Russian spy Maria Butina for violating FARA (aka the legislation that never gets enforced against AIPAC or the GCC funded Council on Islamic American Relations or CAIR) the day of the Helsinki summit.
Rosenstein received a standing ovation from the globalists in the Aspen crowd ahead of his speech last week, which centered on countering supposed foreign disinformation threats to American elections, led by the Russians (U.S. allies like Israel, Saudi Arabia or even Germany via its GMFUS globalist think tank/s never get any mention regarding their efforts to influence Americans online). The pampered Aspen-ites apparently could care less Rosenstein signed the memo justifying the firing of Comey. All that matters to them is hailing Rosenstein for his arrogant defiance of the House Judiciary Committee and blocking (for now) the release of documents to the House Intelligence Committee led by Chairman Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA).
Are the Americans Still 'Not Agreement Capable (недоговороспособны)' Under Trump?
If Not, How Will the Two Sides Resolve the Iran Conundrum?
The Russians say the previously 'not agreement capable' under Obama U.S. side did agree to discuss resettlement of Syrian refugees, and the establishment of working groups in counter-terrorism and cyber-security -- the latter a point Trump had made months before in a tweet. Putin continued to dismiss the idea Russia could actually influence the outcome of the 2016 election as absurd, while hinting that he would allow special counsel Robert Mueller to question the GRU agents he indicted on the Friday before the summit -- if only Russians would be permitted to question American intelligence officers who abetted Browder's money laundering and tax evasion in Russia. Putin knows the latter of course is an unacceptable request, since Browder is an exceptionally wealthy and untouchable individual -- for now. The main point of his accusations against McFaul and Browder appears to have been to put the Anglo-American deep state on notice that Russian intelligence knows about their crimes and is willing to share intel about it through both official and back channels directly to the President.
Which brings us back to the question of whether the President can count on his own cabinet and National Security Council officials to carry out their duties, without publically or privately through leaks undermining his detente policy. Not surprisingly, retired Army Col. and defense attache Pat Lang has called on the President to fire Rosenstein and Coats, but the political timing ahead of the midterms seems to make that a difficult proposition, since Rosenstein is a firewall against further exposure of deep state corruption of the intelligence agencies, while Coats is said to be respected on both sides of the aisle. Meanwhile, both the DNI Coats and Russians coming to an odd point of agreement from different ends -- Moscow will not force Tehran's advisers out of Syria. Thanks to Levant correspondent Elijah J. Magnier, we knew ahead of the summit that Damascus was not ready to ask the Iranians to leave, so long as the jihadists still presented a threat. Nor were the Iranians leaving prior to a negotiated American withdrawal from their illegal occupation bases in eastern Syria:
Russia and Iran have enabled Assad to decimate Syrian opposition forces, once backed by the United States, with airstrikes and ground forces that have been blamed for much of the civilian displacement and deaths in Syria's seven-year civil war. Withdrawal of Iranian forces "throughout the entirety of Syria" is at the top of the administration's Iran strategy, most recently spelled out in a major speech by Pompeo in May, and persuading Russia to help accomplish that goal has been a key rationale for administration outreach to Moscow.
The Pentagon and U.S. allies in the region have pushed back at Trump's stated desire to withdraw the relatively small U.S. military contingent currently in Syria, where it has organized and armed local proxy forces to fight against the Islamic State. Removal of U.S. forces on the ground, currently numbering about 2,200, is seen as reducing whatever leverage the United States has to press both Russia and Iran.
U.S. intelligence does not believe the Russians will deliver. "We have assessed that it's unlikely Russia has the will or the capability to fully implement and counter Iranian decisions and influence" in Syria, Director of National Intelligence Daniel Coats said Thursday at the Aspen Security Forum. "Russia would have to make significantly greater commitments [in Syria] from a military standpoint, from an economic standpoint," he said. "We don't assess that they're keen to do that."
On Friday, Russia's ambassador to Iran, Levan Dzhagaryan, said that Moscow has no intention of pressing Iran to withdraw and denied any strain between them.
"We are actively interacting with Iran, both on the ground and on the political track," Dzhagaryan told Interfax, the Russian news agency. "Like Russia's military presence" in Syria, he said, Iran's military presence there "is legal because our military presence and Iran's is taking place at the request of the legitimate government of the Syrian Arab Republic." -- Washington Post, ibid.
We had suggested prior to the summit that tensions between Israel and Iran appeared to be easing in Syria, as Israeli air strikes while frequent, weren't causing serious casualties among 'Iranians' with Syrian names or hindering the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) from securing the 1974 contact line along the Golan Heights. The Israelis granting of transit to the White Helmets from the south of Syria on buses to Jordan, while allowing British intelligence assets and terrorists who posed as humanitarian aid workers to escape from Damascus forces, also removed a chemical false flag staging gang from Syria. That still leaves the potential for more chemical attacks in the north, where Al-Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) reigns in Idlib province, behind a thin cordon of Turkish peacekeeping checkpoints separating them from the SAA. New chemical false flags could be the perfect accompaniment to a planned escalation against Iran in the region, especially with Israel now bombing Gaza and mainstream media admitting American F15 pilots are flying combat missions out of Djbouti against the Houthis in Yemen. The fact that the MSM is confirming what some in the alternative media said had been going on since the start of the 2015 war suggests the public scope of American involvement in Yemen could soon be expanded, in no small part due to the humiliating Saudi/UAE failure to seize the Red Sea port city of Hodeidah.
Overall the Russian Analyst remains cautiously optimistic, as polling data shows the President's GOP base solidifying closer to the midterms, while the Democrats remain divided between their Hillary legacy and socialist Bernie wings with only the Russiagate rallying cry of hatred for Trump to unite them. However, the Russians are not taking any chances or place too much hope on Trump, with the First Channel's Sunday evening program guests hinting that the President could be assassinated like his predecessor JFK for wanting peace with Moscow.
Not surprisingly, the same week the State Department announced $200 million in additional military aid to the U.S. propped up government of Ukraine, the Russian Defense Ministry showed off the country's new hypersonic and intercontinental nuclear torpedo weapons. Moscow appears willing to tolerate -- up to a point -- American and Israeli coercion to end the Iranian presence in Syria. But Russia's deep, abiding alliance with China makes any direct U.S. aggression to overthrow a key Chinese oil supplier a red line. How Washington and Jerusalem plan to resolve this contradiction, will likely make or break Trump's foreign policy and historic legacy.