IF it can accept that Russo-German partnership need not come at its expense, Poland is well situated to profit from the Antwerp/Rhine valley to Moscow Eurasian trade route and thence to western China One Belt/One Road mega project. Just as China is developing the Budapest to Piraeus railways and widening transport corridors through the Balkans, along comes a Visegrad project (Three Seas) whose infrastructure component quietly compliments rather than hinders Beijing's Central and Eastern European ambitions.Read More
Something is stirring in Germany, one of the most important countries in the Washington-led Anglo-Globalist empire. After days of trying to sweep the story under the rug of women being attacked with firecrackers and sexually assaulted near the Cologne train station and other venues across the country on New Year's Eve, the German police, government and press are facing a severe backlash. One whose implications have started to disturb the Atlanticist, politically correct Establishment that dominates the country over 70 years after WWII.https://twitter.com/ThornyBastard1/status/686325453934608384
'Wir schaffen das' is Mutti Merkel's equivalent to Barack Hussein Obama's 'yes we can'
Even The New York Times' token mainline conservative columnist Ross Douthat can no longer ignore the fact that the Germans have welcomed in far too many able bodied, military age young Muslim males under the guise of showing compassion towards the victims of the Syrian, Libyan and Iraq wars (conflicts instigated by Washington and its regional allies). Douthat's column this weekend concludes by noting that the mass influx of mosty Islamic humanity into Germany threatens the hard won achievements of the post WWII peace, but also implies even more.
Left unsaid by Douthat, but what the Russia Analyst will also say (and has written to 'W' the Intelligence Insider among others) is that the nationalist backlash among Germans who don't want to lose their country in the next two to three decades to permanent demographic change is unlikely to forgive the perceived superpower behind the ex-Stasi Chancellor's moral preening -- read her globalist masters on the other side of the English Channel and Atlantic. As we wrote this past week to 'W', not only are 'white knight' incidents where American GIs end up beating up young Muslim males they perceive to be accosting local frauleins likely, but if present trends aren't halted and reversed, we could see Germans expressing anger in a few years to members of the American military that NATO did nothing to defend Europe's borders from the real invasion, rather than the wildly hyped Russian threat:
Left Party leader Oskar Lafontaine debates U.S. Army deputy European commander Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges on German television, with English subtitles
If you believe that an aging, secularized, heretofore-mostly-homogeneous society is likely to peacefully absorb a migration of that size and scale of cultural difference, then you have a bright future as a spokesman for the current German government.
You’re also a fool. Such a transformation promises increasing polarization among natives and new arrivals alike. It threatens not just a spike in terrorism but a rebirth of 1930s-style political violence. The still-imaginary France Michel Houellebecq conjured up in his novel “Submission,” in which nativists and Islamists brawl in the streets, would have a very good chance of being realized in the German future.
This need not happen. But prudence requires doing everything possible to prevent it. That means closing Germany’s borders to new arrivals for the time being. It means beginning an orderly deportation process for able-bodied young men. It means giving up the fond illusion that Germany’s past sins can be absolved with a reckless humanitarianism in the present.
It means that Angela Merkel must go — so that her country, and the continent it bestrides, can avoid paying too high a price for her high-minded folly.
Read the whole thing here, and try to understand The New York Times effect on man.
Did TheEconomist World in 2016 annual issue cover predict this, with its grim turbaned Taliban-like warrior?
RT clip: German Chancellor Angela Merkel in damage control mode as populist anger rises over the attacks on women in Cologne and other cities
Infowars' Paul Joseph Watson on what happened and how the German media and authorities tried to downplay it, then blame the victims
Alex Jones talks to libertarian thinker and show host Stefan Molyneux about the European rape epidemic and 2016 being a decisive year for liberty
Tommy Robinson speech to 'patriots of Germany' translated by a German guy in a cowboy hat in Cologne, January 10, 2016
For just the second time since World War II, the German Luftwaffe is flying into combat. Deutsche Welle reports that German Tornado reconnaissance fighter jets and an Airbus A310 aerial refueling tanker arrived at Turkey's Incirlik air base last week. The moves came after the German parliament authorized up to 1,200 service members to be deployed in support of the French and U.S. anti-ISIS mission following the November 13 Paris terror attacks. The Germans also sent a frigate, the Augsberg, with a crew of 230 people to support the U.S./NATO flotilla now in the eastern Mediterranean.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VW3rZcu99tU
Germany's latest intervention beyond its borders comes with weak public support, not only due to casualties suffered over the last several years in the country's supporting role in the NATO 'stabilization' mission in Afghanistan, but also due to concerns the country could be targeted in retaliation by Islamic State terrorists who slipped in as refugees this autumn under Chancellor Angela Merkel's open borders policy. A German political cartoon showing Bundeswehr soldiers preparing to deploy to the theater being waved goodbye by young able bodied Syrian men who refused to fight Daesh but fled illustrates the mixed feelings many Germans have over their country's interventionism in the name of anti-ISIS solidarity.
Although the Luftwaffe Tornadoes are expected to only fly reconnaissance rather than bombing missions from January, Germans joining the crowded air space over northern Syria are subject to the same de-confliction agreement the Russians signed with the U.S. and NATO in October. War is Boring website managing editor Robert Beckhusen reported on December 3rd that many of the Luftwaffe's jets are in disrepair or storage for lack of spare parts. Out of an inventory of 198 fighter jets, Germany has a total of 38 ready to deploy. Subtracting the six Tornadoes the Germans have sent to Turkey from that tally leaves Berlin with 32 planes in reserve should it decide to reinforce its presence in Turkey. But besides limited combat resources after a long post-Cold War 1.0 drawdown, the German military has another problem. Or rather, multiple problems related to its Turkish ally, which also happens to be a major trading partner and for decades has been the largest source of Islamic migration to Germany.
The German government has vowed not to share intelligence on ISIS targets or any other Syria subject with the Russians, even though their NATO ally France is doing so. As @GizaDeathStar author and PhD researcher Joseph P. Farrell points out, this creates plausible deniability of any German-Russian cooperation in Syria but there's only one degree of separation -- the French -- between the two sides. For good (avoiding midair collisions with flight plans) or bad (not sharing important data on the movements of all-sides alleged common enemy ISIS) this barrier between German and Russian commanders operating in the same Syrian theater will have consequences.
The Germans have also announced that they will not be sharing intelligence with the Turkish government that is hosting their forces regarding the Kurds, a vow that puts their commanders in Adana province in an awkward position with respect to Ankara. No fewer than two officers will be assigned the task of keeping the Germans' NATO allies in the dark about Luftwaffe aerial reconaissance of Kurdish territory inside Syria, according to the UK Daily Telegraph:
Germany has reportedly drawn up plans to prevent sharing intelligence with its Nato ally Turkey as it prepares to support international air strikes against Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil).
German Tornado aircraft are to commence reconnaissance flights over Syria and Iraq after the country’s parliament on Friday voted to deploy up to 1,200 military personnel.
Highly unsual measures have been ordered to prevent Turkey getting access to intelligence from the flights, according to Spiegel magazine.
The aircaft are expected to operate from Incirlik airbase in southern Turkey, and as Nato allies, the two countries would normally expect to share intelligence.
But German commanders are concerned Turkey may use surveillance information from the flights to direct attacks against Kurdish forces allied to the West.
Ankara has been carrying out its own air strikes against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in south-east Turkey and Iraq as well as People’s Defence Units (YPG) in Syria.
Two German officers have been given the sole task of ensuring no intelligence is shared with Turkey that could be used to target these groups, according to Spiegel.
Germany has already supplied Kurdish forces fighting the Islamic State with small arms -- machine guns and grenades. Theoretically such weapons could be used by Kurds against the Turks in the event Washington cannot force Ankara and the Kurds in both Syria and northern Iraq to play nice.
Germany's deployment to Turkey comes at an especially difficult time for Berlin. The German government led by SPD Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel has criticized one of Turkey's biggest investors and patrons for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's ruling Islamist AKP, Saudi Arabia, as a force spreading extremism through the Mideast. Gabriel, as we pointed out in a previous post, is the same German politician calling for the period of 'frosty relations' with Moscow to end.
While Germany seeks to find room to maneuver in its trade and relations with Russia under the watchful lidless eye of the NSA/GCHQ, Berlin still has the headache of relations with Turkey. Including the recent 3 billion euro bribe Merkel had to offer Erdoğan along with promises of renewed EU membership talks to stop the exodus of humanity from Anatolia into Europe. Plus there's all the problems between Russia and Turkey right now which the Germans cannot escape. Ankara has not only shot down a Russian SU-24 jet in a premeditated attack along the Syrian border in November, but also invaded northern Iraq at the start of this month. Baghdad (which exports oil to Germany, among other European nations) has done what presumably peace-loving German diplomacy would have it do, and turned to the United Nations Security Council for relief.
Unfortunately for the Iraqis, the UNSC is currently chaired by neo-liberal interventionist and anti-Russian fanatic Samantha Power. Thus the Iraqis can expect little if any response to their complaint that the Turkish incursion constitutes aggression under international law. But the U.S. is as usual holding its allies and especially Turkey above international law, a posture that angers Iran, as well as Turkey's historic enemies in Armenia, Greece and the Balkans (Serbia). With the withdrawal of their Patriot SAMs from southern Turkey and dependence on their hosts good graces for the anti-ISIS coalition operation, whatever leverage the Germans might have over the Turks on the issue appears to be gone.
For now it appears Washington is stalling at the UNSC and pushing the line that Turkey's aggression is simply a bilateral matter for Ankara and Baghdad to work out. When RT journalist Gayane Chichakyan (a Russian citizen of Armenian origin, like Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov) pressed State Department spokesman John Kirby during Friday's press briefing on whether Washington had challenged the Turks to stop violating Iraq (officially a U.S. ally's) territorial integrity, he grew flustered and started berating her and Russia Today.
Lies, damned lies, and ridiculous State Department briefings...
Much like the comical State Department spokesclown, the German Foreign Ministry has been faithfully following the party line from the White House this past week, insisting that Germany had no evidence Turkey was deliberately selling Islamic State-produced crude, and deflecting attention towards Assad as the bad guy for buying the oil stolen from his own country.
Avoiding a German-Russian False Flag 'Incident' in Syria
The problem of course remains, that Germany's Tornado jets flying over Daesh-held territory inside Syria look very similar to their British counterparts on Russian and Syrian radar scopes, even if they're squawking a different IFF (identification friend or foe) signal. Vladimir Putin's statement this week that any aircraft or forces that pose a threat to Russian personnel must be destroyed, coming as they did after an isolated Syrian Army base was attacked by U.S.-led coalition (and quite possibly British or Saudi/Qatari -- the Russians wouldn't say which country's) jets, must be regarded with some trepidation by Berlin.
While German Tornadoes will not be carrying bombs and pose no threat to the SAA or their Russian and Iranian/Hezbollah allies, continued provocations by what the Russians implied was a non-U.S. air force subject to the de-confliction agreements against the Syrians could theoretically put the Luftwaffe operators in harms' way from Russian-supplied and Syrian/Iranian manned S-300 SAM batteries. Particularly if Washington is interested in some sort of false flag shoot down of a German jet in order to keep Berlin and Moscow apart. If we were a German Luftwaffe commander at Incirlik, we'd make damn sure our IFF works and intelligence sharing block or not demand our commander inform the Russians and their allies of our IFF signal to avoid any 'incidents' that would be all too convenient for those desperate to spoil German-Russian relations.
Shhh, don't tell U.S. controlled German media shills like Julian Roepcke even VP Joe Biden admits U.S. allies fund Al Qaeda in Syria...
Meanwhile, Bild, Germany's most fanatically pro-NATO and, until recent years, the country's most T and A splashed tabloid, keeps on 'trolling' RT and insisting that Russia, not the Turks, are the real 'ISIS air force'. While Washington propaganda outlets such as the Institute for the Study of War maintain that Russia is focusing its bombing campaign on the 'moderate' anti-Assad rebels (who are neither moderate, nor in many cases Syrians), Bild goes even further and claims that the Russians and ISIS are in cahoots to make Daesh advance at the rebels' expense near the Turkish border.
Naturlich, Bild's #JihadiJulian Roepcke does not want to discuss why Daesh terrorists and the 'moderate' Salafists he prefers to Assad both get their supplies from Turkey. Nor does he go into detail about how his beloved Saudi and Qatari backed 'moderate' jihadists like Ahrar al-Sham want to impose sharia law with stoning for adulterers, homosexuals and chopped off hands for theft.
Or how a Jabhat al Nusra leader recently said the Free Syrian Army doesn't exist, it's just a brand name for numerous anti-Assad groups, and his terror organization (that Washington condemns Russia for bombing) will never renounce allegiance to Al-Qaeda.
Nor will #JihadJulian explain how if Assad's troops, Hezbollah and the Russians are only pretending to fight ISIS, the Syrian Arab Army continues to push the Daeshbags back around the Kuweires military airport and at the gates of Palmyra, the ancient archaeological site that holds highly symbolic value for the Islamic State.
#JihadiJulian's promise that the Russian Air Force would soon face some nasty surprises in the form of jihadist surface to air missiles, either of the man portable or other kind, also failed to materialize since October:
Most U.S./NATO propaganda in Germany is of course, less fanatical and shrill than Julian Roepcke's Völkischer Beobachter-type Twitter rants. TIME Magazine for example, named Chancellor Angela Merkel its person of the year, over ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Not that we would've preferred Baghdadi to the Open Borders Chancellor, but we do have to wonder if TIME's editors miscalculated Merkel's importance, in the sense that rather than solidifying the pro-U.S./NATO 'consensus' in Europe, Merkel's insane ' ' policy may've actually hastened the demise of American dominance on the Continent. Particularly given the big electoral victory last weekend for Marine Le Pen's National Front party which was a repudiation of the 'Chancellor of the free World' -- in particular, Merkel's open borders and loyalty to Washington's Russian sanctions.
We'll leave RogueMoney readers with a speech by German Left Party MP Sahra Wagenknecht in the presence of Chancellor Angela Merkel and Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier published in late October, on who's really to blame for the mass exodus of Muslims from engineered Mideast conflicts into Europe and Germany:
...and in this video, from December 2015, Wagenknecht basically calls TIME Magazine's Person of the Year a stooge for illegal and unjust U.S. wars, including the present bombing inside Syria which violates international law because the legitimate Syrian government has not authorized it. A bonus to Ms. Wagenknecht for mentioning The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives (1998) by Zbigniew Brzezinski:
Over a week ago the Russia Analyst wrote for RogueMoney, "Russia and Assad Are Winning: How Will the Empire Strike Back?". After more than two weeks of Russian bombing against what Washington admits are its proxies in Syria, we have some answers: with threats of a limited 'no fly zone' and MANPADs...in other words, anti-aircraft potentially airliner killing weapons for jihadists. Washington also continues to play the 'Syria as the new Afghanistan for the Russians' card, and state-run if not directly funded American media like CNN (known for faking footage during Gulf War 1 and taking payoffs from the U.S. 5th fleet hosting, Shi'a brutalizing government of Bahrain) repeat Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter's dark threats of terror attacks on Russian soil in reprisal for the Syria campaign.[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBLCM7WK92I[/embed]
RT's Anissa Naouai gives the presidential debate poll rigging Clinton News Network a thorough smackdown
Washington Desperately Wants to 'Pick up the Pieces' of Its Syria Policy After it was Stomped by the Russian Bear
Meanwhile policy publications attempting to recover from the shock of Russian intervention suggest a Ukraine-style ceasefire to save America's Sunni jihadist proxies from a humiliating defeat. Such a 'limited' American intervention, whereby the U.S. doesn't adopt the neocon policy of bombing Syrian forces and thereby risking direct confrontation with the Russians, but tries to establish so-called 'safe zones' where Washington's humiliated proxies can regroup, appears to be all the rage inside the District of Corruption this week.
Faced with disaster for 'our guys' on the battlefield, BloombergView, the global financial wire service's op-ed page, has come out in full Hillary Clinton/neocon war cry mode:
...the U.S. should demand Putin use his influence with Assad to ground Syria's helicopter fleet, which has dropped thousands of barrel bombs on civilians in rebel-held areas. And if Putin fails or refuses, which seems likely, the U.S. should be prepared to do the job itself [and nevermind the Russian Su-30s overhead that could shoot down US planes attacking Russian gunships, which operate alongside Syrian choppers - JWS]. Russia also needs to be made to understand that if it targets U.S.-backed rebels or safe zones, the U.S. will expand its air war to include Assad's forces. [and start losing planes and pilots to S-300s operated by mixed Russian/Syrian crews but flying the Syrians' flag - JWS]
All this will require a greater U.S. presence, of course, but it needn't be in the form of combat troops [a flat out lie, since at the very least the Air Force would be sending in pararescue men to pick up shot down American pilots - JWS] which, as Obama has made clear, aren't forthcoming in any event. Instead, the focus should be on strengthening NATO's presence in the region, especially along the Turkish-Syrian border, which would not only protect the safe havens [read: allow ISIS sponsor Turkey to continue violating Syrian air space or firing across the border to try and save its defeated proxies in northern Latakia or spare ISIS from the Kurdish YPG advance - JWS] but also interfere with Putin's more dangerous mischief.
One manifestation of that mischief is now unfolding in the northern city of Aleppo, where rebels who hold much of the city are coming under assault from Russian air power, as well as Syrian, Iranian and Hezbollah troops from one side, and Islamic State from the other. Without support, Aleppo will probably fall [to the legitimate government of Syria and its Iranian/Iraqi allies, not to ISIS which has no capacity to take the city and is losing scores of men a day to SAA fire and Russian air strikes around the Kuweires Airport northeast of Aleppo - JWS].
A Russian Su-30 pilot has a close encounter with a US Predator drone flying high over Syria...does Obama have the stomach for risking direct U.S.-Russian clashes to enforce some 'no fly zone' and save Washington's pet jihadis from crushing defeat in the coming weeks and months? We don't think so, and the newly reached Pentagon/Russian Ministry of Defense agreement on avoiding flights too close to each other supports our view. So does the Israeli Air Force backing off its heretofore routine violations of Syrian Air Space and Lebanon's skies close to Syria
According to my friend The Saker, a veteran of the 1990s Balkan wars who likely worked for French intelligence at that time, Washington could be dusting off its incrementalist playbook from the former Yugoslavia when the Serbs were inflicting heavy losses on NATO's Bosnian Muslim and Croat proxies. That is, whenever any proxy force Washington has sent money, arms or trainers to help is getting whipped on the battlefield suddenly the US State Department and policy community want to talk peace. When the shoe is on the other foot, the force Washington wants its proxies to grind down or destroy must surrender or face the consequences.
We've seen this pattern in eastern Ukraine where Obama reluctantly conceded to the Minsk1 ceasefire after the Ukrainians were routed by direct Russian firepower across the border and a limited intervention alongside their Donbass native Novorossiya Armed Forces (NAF) allies in August 2014. We saw it again in February 2015 when the French President and German Chancellor urgently sought talks with Putin after the NAF and Russian advisers trapped thousands of Ukrainian troops and likely several hundred NATO mercenaries at Debaltsevo.
Is Arming the 'Allahu Akbar' Al-Qaeda Loyalist Warriors of Al-Nusra the Answer?
Former White House budget director under President Reagan David Stockman telling it like it is
Anonymously sourced reports carried by Reuters on Tuesday claimed that three Russian volunteers, rather than regular servicemen, had been killed in a shelling attack on their position alongside Syrian government troops in northern Latakia province. However, ITAR TASS reports the Russian Ministry of Defense denies this account. It is too early to say who's telling the truth regarding this particular casualty report.
Preparing for the worst -- a Russian pilot packs his survival kit before a combat mission over Syria
We know that at least some active duty Russian servicemen, numbering in the scores to the couple hundreds perished as volunteers fighting alongside the Novorossiya Armed Forces (NAF) in Donbass. We know the Russian Defense Ministry has denied these deaths or insisted that those who died were volunteers. But we also know that the mainstream media has not been able to substantiate Ukrainian claims that thousands of Russian soldiers have died in the Donbass, even as it aids and abets the Kiev regime in covering up between 13 and 16,000 Ukrainian combat deaths since the start of the so-called 'Anti-Terrorist Operation' in April 2014.
In this case, until we see more proof, we are assuming the latest report of KIA'd Russians is BS until shown otherwise. It may well also have been timed to distract the news media from the fact that a Russian air strike allegedly wiped out a number of 'Free Syrian Army' commanders in the northern Latakia region, who learned the hard way not to use their cellphones even for a few seconds with Ivan dominating the electronic battle space all the way to Turkey. True, Russia will lose men as its advisers closely embed with their Syrian charges on the front lines and guide the advances. But we expect Russian casualties to remain fairly low while their firepower inflicts huge losses on the Washington, Riyadh and Ankara backed jihadis.
How AlCIAeda agitprop directed at Muslims 'works': an anti-Russian Twitter account cites unnamed 'ISIS fanboy' Twitter feeds that are mysteriously never shut down for inciting terrorism and violence, depicting a 'Russian crusader' with his cross on an armored vehicle near Aleppo. Only problem? There's no evidence this pic was taken in Syria in 2015, and it appears to us to depict Russian soldiers on exercises in southern Russia's steppe years ago.
The so-called 'Free Syrian Army' or FSA, whose main neocon booster Michael D. Weiss recently admitted doesn't actually exist, but is rather an umbrella label for numerous jihadist groups putting out TOW mama snackbar jihadi porn videos. However, it isn't clear that the TOW gunners are having as much success as advertised, or that the SAA tactic of screening armor with infantry carrying Russian-supplied Kornet ATGMs and the Hind gunships aren't taking their toll on the jihadists' TOW crews. The Saudis' TOW delivery boys also face the prospect of night strikes guided by both human intelligence (there are many who hate the Salafists the U.S. tries to portray as freedumb fighters in Aleppo, Hama and other cities) and Russian ELINT picking up radio chatter on where weapons deliveries are needed.
Russian Mi-24P gunships practice swarming tactics and drop many flares in skies over rebel-held Hama
Fanatically pro-'FSA' propagandists like Bild's Julian Roepcke continue to deny the gains the SAA are making in the countryside outside the anti-Assad stronghold of Aleppo, once Syria's second largest city (and the place from which many of the refugees in Germany fled from). But the gruesome visual evidence of retreating jihadis slaughtered by SAA artillery or Russian Smerch cluster munitions continues to accumulate on pro-SAA Twitter feeds. As do videos of what Russian MLRS rocket attacks look like -- a mini-volcanic eruption -- from the positions of jihadists repeating the Allahu Akbar death to Russians mantra.
Russian BM-30 Smerch rockets leveling several city blocks in the Sunni jihadi-controlled Jobar area of Damascus
SAA move into areas hit by Smerch strikes with armor and self-propelled guns to mop up the survivors' resistance. Note the use of thick smokescreens to protect tanks from rocket propelled grenade (RPG) fire
Sorry McCain and Neocons, But Israel and Turkey Want No Part of a Fight with Russia in Syria
One of our not so favorite Mideast reporters, Robert Fisk, writes for Counterpunch that not only has Uncle Sam been frustrated by the Syrians' resurgence under the wings of Russian airpower, but also the Israelis who used to help out the Al-Nusra front on the southern line near the Golan Heights with periodic air strikes:
The Syrian army was losing ground – at Jisr al-Shugour and at Palmyra – and so we predicted that the whole Assad state had reached a “tipping point”.
Then along came Vladimir Putin with his air and missile fleets and suddenly the whole place is transformed. While we huffed and puffed that the Russians were bombing the “moderate” rebels – moderates who had earlier ceased to exist according to America’s top generals – we’ve been paying no attention to the military offensive which the Syrians themselves are now staging against the Nusra Front fighters around Aleppo and in the valley of the Orontes.
Syrian commanders are now setting the coordinates for almost every Russian air strike. They were originally giving between 200 and 400 coordinates a night. Now the figure sometimes reaches 800. Not that the Russians are going after every map reference, of course. The Syrians have found that the Russians do not want to fire at targets in built-up areas; they intend to leave burning hospitals and dead wedding parties to the Americans in Afghanistan. This policy could always change, of course. No air force bombs countries without killing civilians. Nor without crossing other people’s frontiers.
But the Russians are now telling the Turks – and by logical extension, this information must go to the Americans – their flight coordinates. Even more remarkable, they have set up a hotline communications system between their base on the Syrian Mediterranean coast and the Israeli ministry of defence in Tel Aviv. More incredible still is that the Israelis – who have a habit of targeting Syrian and Iranian personnel near the Golan Heights – have suddenly disappeared from the skies. In other words, the Russians are involved in a big operation, not a one-month wonder that is going on in Syria. And it is likely to continue for quite a time.
As in Ukraine, Neocons Vastly Overestimated the Number of Young Men Willing to Die to Defeat Russian Proxies
For the first time in many months, a force that had been written off as having taken too many casualties to be effective or launch offensives is on the march, and by all signs SAA morale is high (and the Syrians are smartly picking off their enemies village by village and Russian strikes on hilltop by hilltop, rather than trying to fight in heavily urbanized, fortified areas yet). And as a result, the neocons and Qatari shills like @Charles_Lister and @MichaelDWeiss who said Assad was finished look like, well, idiots.
It appears the neocons like Weiss who imagined it would only take more weaponry, and a few air strikes to buckle Assad's core of supporters forgot that for them, the alternatives to fighting are either fleeing or genocide.
The unholy alliance between neocon Trotskyites like Weiss (not a reference Mikey's ethnicity, but his genuine ideology if his tweets about Partisan Review are to be believed) and Saudi/Qatari sheikhs also seem to have imagined that the manpower base of the Sunni Salafists in Syria was essentially bottomless. The tens of thousands of young able bodied Sunni Muslim males fleeing areas the rebels control for Germany this autumn would suggest otherwise. In an ironic way, the destabilization through mass migration program the Turks and globalists initiated this summer might lead to a much faster collapse of America's proxies in Syria than anyone had anticipated at the start of Russia's bombing.
After all, who wants to die for Allah and some fat Saudi sheikh's generous TOW donation outside Damascus or in the rubble of Aleppo when you can have three squares and free housing in Germany, courtesy of Mutti Merkel? Maybe the fanatically pro-big gub'mt conspiracy theorists like Cliff Kincaid who insist Merkel is secretly working for Putin, not the NSA blackmailing her, once again have a point? Because the prospect of fleeing to Germany sure seems like a Sun Tzu "leaving a surrounded enemy a way of escape, he must see that there is an alternative to death" trick on Putin and Assad's part to me:
I remember a Syrian Sunni colleague yelling, in the middle of an office argument, “I would rather have SHAYTAN ruling my country than Assad!” I’ve always wondered whether he still feels that way, now that he’s had a chance to see the heads stuck on poles in Raqqa. You want Shaytan, kid, sometimes you’re gonna get Shaytan.
The Alawites are likely to fight to the last boy or old man because they know very well there’ll be very little mercy for them if the Sunni win. Long before the current war started, graffiti in Sunni neighborhoods in Syria said, “Christians to Beirut, Alawi to the graveyard.” That wasn’t what you call “mere hyperbole,” either; when Sunni militias made it into Alawite territory in Latakia Province in 2013, they killed hundreds of civilians.
Even Alawites who hate Assad’s clan have joined up, because when you belong to a small hill sect in a sea of Sunni sectarians, you’re in a prison situation: stick with your own or die.
What’s much more remarkable than the Alawites' grim determination is the clear refusal of most Syrian Sunni Arabs to fight in this war at all.
In theory, the Syrian Sunni have a huge pool of recruits. There are about 17 million Sunni Arabs in Syria. If you look at the country’s age structure, you can see that there are roughly five million Sunni Arab “men of military age,” roughly 15-40. (15 may seem young, and 40 old, for conventional armies, but in sectarian war people much younger and older are common.)
Five million men is potentially a huge military force. And the number may be bigger, since the Sunni who join the various Sunni militias are drawn heavily from rural, lower-class backgrounds, where big families are common. Even if you only consider the core fighting-age males, the 15-24 year old testosterone-poisoning cases as yet untainted by empathy, you still get an astonishing figure of available manpower for the Syrian Sunni. In theory, they would be able to field more than two million men if they only recruited these young dumb guys.
And there are no disqualifying factors that would neutralize this numerical advantage. Sometimes the more numerous tribe is simply terrorized into docility, but that’s not the case here. The Syrian Sunni were the traditionally dominant tribe under the long Ottoman rule; Alawite domination of Syria is a very recent and very odd accident, a result of France’s colonial strategy of taking the most despised local tribe and using it as a vengeful, loyal proxy army. Sunni Syrians, unlike the world’s many helot tribes that may have numbers but not morale, have always considered themselves the rightful rulers of the country. They’ve never really been afraid of the Alawites.
If Syria's Sunni Arabs had managed to mobilize effectively, they could have wiped out the Alawites long ago. But very few Sunni Syrians are actually willing to fight in this war, maybe as few as two or three per cent of those “men of military age.” - Gary Brecher aka 'The War Nerd', May 2015
Even if Washington Sends them MANPADs Can Reach Russian and Syrian Helicopters, But Won't Stop the Bombing
On the other side, the Russian Defense Ministry says not only have thousands of ISIS fighters deserted since the start of the air campaign, but their electronic intelligence (ELINT) is intercepting desperate radio'd pleas for more arms and men from the jihadists to their unnamed (Saudi and Turkish) sponsors. The Saudis and Qataris via their state-run media have issued threats that they will send man portable surface to air missiles like the famous Stinger to their proxies in Syria. But two weeks of Russian attack helicopters flying low level combat missions without a single lost machine is a testament to the effectiveness of Russian tactics and MANPAD jamming flares and other countermeasures. As for the fast movers, even the older generation Su-22/24 Syrian strike fighters that lack the Russians' most modern avionics and counter-threat ECM systems do not seem to have been effected too much by the MANPADs the jihadis deployed in 2013.
Syrian Air Force strike on a rebel position...on a hazy but decent visibility day and not an anti-aircraft tracer in sight High quality HD video is courtesy of a Russian VGTRK journalist's Go Pro camera equipped drone
The Risks to Saudi Arabia of Direct Retaliation for Arming Jihadis to Kill Russians -- More Dead Saudi Soldiers and Destroyed U.S.-Supplied Weapons, More Brazen Attacks Inside the Kingdom by the Houthi and Yemenis
If the Saudi hardliners follow through on such threats we are certain they'll face tit for tat retaliation in the form of KSA Apaches being blown out of the sky by increasingly brazen Houthi and Yemeni tribesmen attacks inside the Kingdom. If McCain gets his wish and his jihadis get MANPADs and more TOWs, the Houthis and their Yemeni army and tribal allies will almost certainly receive a major influx of modern Russian ATGMs and MANPADs. The UN arms embargo and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Saudi-led coalition troops will not prove much of an obstacle to this arms flow. So far, the Houthis and allied tribesmen have already inflicted significant losses on the Saudis, using only 1980s or early 90s vintage Soviet weaponry that appears to have been looted or donated by the Yemeni Army.
How much longer will the Saudis keep bleeding and dying for D.C.'s Empire and their proxy wars with Iran in Syria and Yemen? Shi'a Houthis film themselves ambushing a Saudi border convoy this summer, blowing up KSA tanks
Houthi gunfire clangs off a Saudi armored vehicle somewhere near the KSA-Yemeni border This is of course, a factor whatever sociopath wrote this op-ed for BloombergView demanding that the U.S. enforce a no fly zone against the Russians in Syria also forgot -- that Moscow has the direct capacity if not acting through allies to wage a massive proxy war against U.S. allies. We have little doubt, for example, that ships full of TOWs could blow up in Turkish or Saudi harbors, with Kurdish or Houthi fighters taking credit for sabotage or destruction that may've been inflicted by spetsnaz teams.
Sen. McInsane: these guys look like freedom fighters resisting Vladimir Putin's aggression to me! Send em' Stingers! 'My friends' won't target airliners on approach full of infidels, they promised!
Moscow in recent days has reminded Washington about the risks that any MANPADs sent to the 'moderate' Syrian jihadists will end up in the hands of the Al-Qaeda loyalist Al-Nusra Front, or even ISIS. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in particular has stated any proof of MANPADs being supplied to these State Department-designated terrorist organizations would be referred to the United Nations Security Council.
Even though the US like Russia has a veto at the UNSC, solid proof that there is only one Saudi degree of separation between US MANPADs and Al-Nusra or ISIS getting them and threatening civil airliners would be highly embarrassing to not only the CIA/Pentagon, but also the fanatical neocons like Sen. John McCain who would risk airline passengers lives simply for the chance to shoot down a few Russian helicopters. Since McCain was already confronted by a US Marines Corps veteran at a town hall meeting who called him a traitor and a sponsor of terrorists, we doubt the neocons' favorite senile Senator is keen to be questioned by the press or public regarding how he'd keep the MANPADs he wants to send to Syria out of ISIS hands.
Below is the sanitized version of the Sept. 2013 town hall shown by Arizona local media to McCain's constituents
While the SAA and Russian airpower push the jihadists back towards their sponsor Turkey in northern Latakia province, the Iranians are making no secret of their force buildup near Aleppo. The Persians are publishing 'selfies' of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Qassem Soleimani with his IRGC and Hezbollah/Shi'a militia troops, and of Soleimani speaking to his men before they head into battle.
According to a reliable source in Southfront, at least 3,000 IRGC fighters are teaming up with 1,500 battle-hardened Hezbollah soldiers and Iraqi Shi'a militiamen to assault enemy lines around Aleppo.
The Battle of Aleppo: A Turning Point in the Syrian Civil War and an Opportunity for Assad to Force the Saudis, Turks and Qataris to Make their Sunni Jihadist Forces Talk Peace on Damascus' Terms
The eventual goal is to encircle the city and then take it this winter, dealing a huge blow to the anti-Assad forces morale and cutting off a major hub for their supply lines. Prior to tackling what will certainly be a bloody urban battle for Aleppo itself, however, the pro-Assad forces have other priorities. Pushing the jihadists out of the Allawite coastal heartland of Latakia province and cutting their supply lines from Turkey is one near term objective. Another goal is lifting the ISIS siege of Kuweires military airport, which will in turn free that facility to host Iranian and Syrian attack jets and gunships. As of late Monday night Central/Eastern U.S. time the SAA's elite 'Tiger Force' was within 2 kilometers of the besieged airport's perimeter, with ISIS fighters mostly melting away after several score were killed in the ruins of the villages around the scene of heavy fighting.
Having close air support choppers and jets close at hand will multiply the effectiveness of Russian air strikes, which as was reported over the weekend, will be increased from an average 60 to perhaps 300 sorties a day. The Kuweires Airport could also become an airlift center for Iran to fly in more of its own and Iraqi volunteer troops. Thus the taunting question posed by the pro-rebel advocates on Twitter of where Assad will find the manpower for an assault on downtown Aleppo, after four years of war and thousands of combat deaths, is answered by the Iranians and Iraqis.
Aside from the nature of 21st century urban combat, which exacts a heavy toll on the fighters and civilians alike, there is one other major humanitarian catastrophe looming for those left inside rebel-controlled Aleppo: the loss of electricity and water treatment infrastructure. The Syrian Arab News channel or SANA claims that F-16 jets sent by either the US or Turkey bombed two power plants which provide electricity for treating Euphrates river water from raw sewage. At least one of the plants was in the hands of Islamic State jihadists which could've provided the pretext for the 'strange' U.S. air strike, as Vladimir Putin called it speaking to Russian television last weekend.
On Sunday, the American aviation bombed out an electrical power plant and a transformer in Aleppo. Why have they done this? Whom have they punished there? What’s the point? Nobody knows...
It appears based on the tone of EuroNews and other reliable Establishment mouthpieces, which cite the 'UK based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights' which is really one old guy operating out of his house in Coventry, that the MSM script for the upcoming Aleppo battle has been written. Putin and the Russians will be blamed for an Aleppo cholera outbreak caused by lack of water treatment due to the power outage created by U.S. or Turkish F-16 bombs.
Moving towards the end game negotiations: RT video on the cracking of NATO's 'united front' against Russian intervention in Syria and 'Bashir Assad must go' rhetoric
Kompromat: What Happens Next? Moscow's Trump Card in Syria is What it Knows About Uncle Sam and ISIS Washington's High Card is Doubling Down/Massively Resupplying its Jihadi Proxies, Even if They're Al-Qaeda
The Russia Analyst predicted back in August that Turkey would get thrown under the bus and blamed for the rise of ISIS, even if their role was primarily a logistical and safe haven one while the Saudis and Qataris provided the Islamic State the weapons and cash. This New York Times article by a former member of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ruling AKP coalition admitting Turkish security services turned a blind eye to ISIS cells inside the country appears to be the start of the 'limited hangout' campaign we predicted, as does the U.S. Treasury department's sudden interest after over a year of ubiquitous Toyota jihad videos in the provenance of the Islamic State's Hillux pickup truck fleets!
Meanwhile, as we speculated last week in our piece, "Our Disgruntled Spooks and 'Realists' Teaming Up to Undermine Cold War 2.0 in Syria?" behind whistle blowers who've already gone public like former Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) director Gen. Michael T. Flynn (USA ret.) are many others waiting to leak or publically state what they know. The 50 intelligence analysts who revolted against Obama White House falsehoods about 'successes' in the war on the Islamic State widely reported by the Daily Beast and other outlets represent just the tip of an iceberg that's poised to melt and crumble in spectacular fashion.
Indeed, we are starting to suspect that RT and other Russian-state funded media promoting Flynn's revelations that the rise of ISIS was deliberately enabled, if not fueled by the Obama Administration were part of the 'psychological operations' preceding the shooting Russian intervention in Syria. Many members of the U.S. military resent Russian jets blowing by American Predator drones or the widely distributed story about a Russian general ordering American planes to clear out of air space an hour before Moscow's bombs started falling. Nonetheless, they have no idea what the real mission in Syria is, and cannot bulls--t themselves regarding the relative success of Russia's few air strikes against ISIS versus over 7,000 sorties through 14 months that have accomplished next to nothing.
Last but not least, lingering like the Sword of Damocles over President Obama and the U.S. Deep Staters determined to avenge the Empire's humiliation at Russian hands, is what Moscow's security services know about covert American aid to the Islamic State, including the recent para-drop of 50 tons (!) of ammo near the front lines between the Kurdish YPG and ISIS that may've 'fallen' into Daesh hands a week ago. The Veterans Today circulated report that ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was seriously wounded in an Iraqi air strike last week and has been evacuated to a Turkish hospital under the CIA's care is likely Russian or Iranian disinformatziya. Gordon Duff, the main editor behind VT, published a story pronouncing al-Baghdadi dead as recently as April. Commenters at the Vineyard of the Saker and other alternative media sites we read have frequently denounced Duff, saying he simply makes stuff up.
All the same this week The Saker reports a top Russian military expert and until 2007 member of Russia's General Staff is saying the Americans are resupplying Daesh via ammo drops. Let me repeat that one more time so it sinks in: The Saker is a trained former intelligence analyst who is typically skeptical of everything, especially 'rah rah Russia, America bad' stuff that comes across his desk. Yet according to The Saker Konstantin Sivkov PhD, whose bio reads:
Doctor of MilitarySciences, the first vice-president of the Academyof Geopolitical Problems, a military expert. He was bornin 1954. In 1976he graduated from theNavalCollege.He servedin the Navy. He graduated from theMilitary Medical Academy. In 1992 hegraduated from the Academyof the General Staff. From 1995to 2007he served in theGeneral Staff ofthe Armed Forces.A specialist inthe field of militarypolitical science.He participated in the developmentof doctrinal documentsdetermining thedevelopment and use ofthe Armed Forces.
...is telling Russia's 'Free Press' news program that the Americans are increasing their support for ISIS and other jihadist organizations in Syria, and a long, tough slog awaits Moscow's Syrian and Iranian allies. Sivkov also states according to the Saker that Russia's current forces in Syria are inadequate for the mission and the Russians have already used many of their long range Kalibr cruise missiles and precision GLONAS GPS guided bombs. Thus if the Russians really do continue to encounter fierce resistance or even, God forbid, suicide attacks on their fortified perimeter around the Latakia air base that result in casualties, the 'cut the blackmail and just go for the truth bomb' option will start to seem more appealing. What Russian truth bombs regarding the CIA and Islamic State would look like we cannot say, though we know Iran's security services were monitoring Langley's arms trafficking through Libya very closely, and some footage of MANPADs or TOWs being loaded onto boats at Benghazi harbor undoubtedly ended up being shared by Tehran with the SVR/GRU.
With the U.S. campaign against ISIS being so incredibly half assed, so deliberately botched, and the number of Toyota pick up trucks flowing to Al-Qaeda member Al-Nusra front fighters only one degree removed from Daesh, isn't this story more credible to people outside the U.S. mainstream media bubble than it would've been say, at the start of the Islamic State's spectacular territorial expansion last year? We would have to admit the answer to that question is 'yes'.
Furthermore, does not the candidacy of Hillary Rodham Clinton for the White House produce some marvelous opportunities for foreign players, led by the Iranians and Russians, to leak what they know about the CIA's gun and MANPAD running out of Benghazi to Al-Nusra front in Syria, and HRC's role in this operation? And has the amazingly incompetent security for Hillary's email accounts, which we've already heard from many intel community sources were wide open to foreign intelligence hacking, left her open to blackmail?
We have written many times here at Rogue Money about the humiliating standdown of late August/September 2013 from President Obama's 'red line' in Syria. 'W' the Intelligence Insider has also spoken about this subject, stating that the globalists tried no fewer than three and probably four times since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011 to push the United States military into direct combat with Assad's forces. Each time someone or something held the neocons and war-pushers back. Today, with so many competing voices calling for either accommodation (the rare minority) or increased all out proxy war against the Russians in Syria, we suspect the biggest casualty could become the Empire's 'war on terror' being exposed to the whole world as a cosmic fraud.
As V stated in his Guerrilla report this week the petrodollar coffin nails event probably already happened this week, when the USS Theodore Roosevelt left the Persian Gulf without an American carrier for the first time in several years. But we believe the hammering in of those coffin nails will involve explosive revelations from the Russians and Iranians regarding not only Washington's support at the dawn of Daesh, but also various factions' treasonous betrayal of America's fighting men and women by continued covert support for America and the West's most dreaded enemy, ISIS.
"No west European leader, absolutely none, has dared to publicly express the idea that the refugees from Iraq, Syria, Libya, the Horn of Africa, Nigeria and Mali are not fleeing dictatorships, but the chaos into which we have deliberately...plunged their countries." - Thierry Meyssan "C'est toujours l'me qui gagne les combats decisifs" - Jean RaspailRead More