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The Presidency of Barack Hussein Obama has a serious foreign policy collapse underway. On that critics from the 'left' and 'right' in the corporatist mainstream media agree. The Obama Administration's abandonment of a half billion dollar arm and training program for 'moderate' Syrian rebels run by the Pentagon is the latest fact to confirm this reality. The CIA still has another program that's supposedly trained or armed 10,000 rebels, but no one seems to account for exactly who or where these people are, or for how long exactly Langley has been running that program, perhaps due to the bipartisan House Committee coverrup of arms running via Libya.[embed]https://twitter.com/freebeacon/status/648655962375491585[/embed]
Train...equip...FAIL: "Gen. Lloyd J. Austin III, the head of the United States Central Command, told a Senate panel that only a very small number of Syrian fighters trained by the United States remained in the fight—perhaps as few as five. The tab for training and equipping them was $500 million." RT video covering media and Congressional testimony questions about the Pentagon's now abandoned program to arm and train 'moderate' Syrian rebels to fight Assad and the Islamic State. With such a pattern of failure, who WOULDN'T be disgruntled besides the CIA or Pentagon contractors who suckered the taxpayers for this scam?
Nonetheless, just as WWII did not end with major defeats for Germany or Japan at Stalingrad and Midway, the second Cold War and the hot proxy wars it has spawned in the Middle East if not Ukraine are far from over. Nor will the killing stop in Syria until the foreign sponsors of the Sunni jihadists led by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey plus the United States government accept defeat and negotiate a peace agreement in the Levant based on the Eurasian axis' terms. Washington's 'Empire of Chaos' and the lies that increasingly demonstrate its hollow nature still have a ways to go before they're finally buried, and the world may breathe easier knowing the world's two greatest nuclear powers have returned to constructive relations.
In the meantime, as we expect Cold War 2.0 to drag on until the dollar's reserve currency run is almost universally acknowledged as finished late this decade, more leaks and 'tells' of the Establishment's desperation are coming. Secretary of State John Kerry's 'wow' admission several weeks ago that without a peace deal with Iran the petrodollar could collapse was one of those moments. There will be many more.
The United States' strategy of literally paradropping arms to unknown or any jihadist forces willing to fight Assad, even if they have sworn allegiance to Al-Qaeda, likely produce a backlash in the intel community. Who after all in their right mind within the CIA would want to put their signature on a secret document outlining how to put Stinger missiles into the hands of groups known to surrender U.S. weapons to Jubhat al-Nusra or even ISIS? Particularly if the 'worst case scenario' comes true and Al-Nusra or ISIS uses a U.S.-provided MANPAD to blow an airliner out of the sky in Iraq, Jordan, Turkey, or the West?
According to 'Shellback', a military contemporary to Rogue Money brain trust godfather 'W the Intelligence Insider', more patriots inside the intelligence community are going to have to risk their careers and possibly their freedom to expose the dirty laundry of a dying Anglo-Globalist Empire. Just as the recklessness of American policy increases, so too will the dissent, which even the mainstream media outlets like CBS can no longer hide:
Don't Blame US Spooks for the Coming Collapse -- Blame Barry and Con-gress for Everything!
'Shellback' is a retired U.S. military officer who writes for my friend Charles Bausman at the Moscow-expat run website Russia Insider. 'Shellback' is likely around the same age as our very own 'Agent W' and like the RogueMoney Intelligence Insider, is a veteran of the first Cold War versus the Russians. Therefore he speaks from a position of a healthy respect for his former opponents, as well as recognition of how much more competently things were run under Reagan than they are in the dumpster fire that is today's Obama White House, with the Pentagon and CIA hardly better managed.
"Shellback" writes in the October 5, 2015 edition of the Moscow expat-run online magazine Russia Insider:
Watching the catastrophes, incompetence and mendacity of the Obama era in which the fantasies of the neo cons have been joined to those of the humanitarian interventionists I have begun to suspect that these idiocies are being perpetrated without support of the intel establishment.
Who Gets Thrown Under the Bus Come Collapse Time? Barry POT(smoking)US, the Deep State Spooks, or Everyone? And How Soon Does SHTF for the Dollar and the Anglo-Globalist Empire?
As fellow RogueMoney brain trust member WolfGray has long suspected in his columns here, Americans are being set up for an epic 'don't blame us [fill in the blank] bankers, spooks, or Joint Chiefs of Staff' SHTF moment. Writing at Zerohedge, libertarian thinker Charles Hugh Smith has hinted several times that the 'Deep State' -- the military industrial complex, Big Pharma, the top Hollywood moguls, intelligence agencies and the police/Homeland Security complex could try to turn on their masters in finance. Not unike the praetorian guards and generals deposing Roman emperors or Senators, or Egyptian/Turkish/Greek colonels taking over. However, CHS seems to imply that the 'Deep State' will only rise up against the 'Money Power' in the event of a total financial catastrophe, eg dollar hyperinflation and mass civil unrest creating the perfect conditions for 'a man on a white horse' to appear.
The reason we bring up this discussion at the start of this piece goes back to our ongoing 'debate' with WG about when, not if, the dollar will finally be admitted by all sane people to be roadkill. WG and the Guerrilla believe it's only months, not years to go, with late 2017 after the presidential election as a likely 'wheels come off' hyper inflationary moment. The Russia Analyst's time frame is slightly longer, stretching perhaps until the end of the next president's first term -- 2020. But we cannot see the banksters and the U.S./EU/Japanese central bankers buying much more time than that.
Understanding that the MIC and the dirty side of the intel community are servants (but highly paid ones) to the masters of finance, we aren't so sure the globalist power pyramid can be rearranged even if the U.S experiences a shocking internal and external collapse. At least not without members of key globalist elite families having 'accidents' or being told by the Triads and other men with guns that it's game over and go away or die. Jim Willie, Jim Stone, Benjamin Fulford and Joseph P. Farrell all believe that such 'power broker' threats by the mysterious 'White Dragons' of the East against the worst globalists of the West have been conveyed and in some cases carried out with lethal efficiency. Some also believe that a purge has started and could be connected to the dead bankers phenomenon V has been at the forefront of reporting.
Speaking only for ourselves and our open sources, the ability of the oil men to push back at least somewhat against the MIC/neocons when it comes to Russia policy, probably due to ExxonMobil's still extant Rockefeller clout, is a phenomenon we've noticed dating back to the late George W. Bush Administration years (especially 'Dubya's quick backdown in Georgia and the subsequent 'Reset' under Obama as BP, Exxon and Shell all expanded their investments in Russian energy assets). The oil men also likely exerted some moderating influence over the Clinton Administration's Russia policy during the Kosovo War when tensions were highest and the 'liberal hawks' wanted Gen. Wesley Clark to open fire on Russian peacekeepers at Pristina airport.
Are There Globalists Who Want to 'Settle' Cold War 2.0 and Find Another Method Besides World War to Usher in the NWO? You Betcha
The current clash we're seeing between for lack of a better term Western hardline Cold Warriors (as personified by the nutty neocons and neo-liberal interventionists, think Sen. John McCain and Samantha Power) against the softer line globalists (Henry Kissinger? Hollande and Merkel in Europe?) over Mideast and Russia policy suggest the 'New World Order' Agent W talks about isn't exactly a monolith. Nor is it invincible.
- The failure of Obama to secure any Congressional approval for strikes on Syria in August 2013 despite false flag East Ghouta chemical attack
- the Israel lobby's inability to block the Iran nuclear/peace deal or get direct U.S. intervention against Assad on multiple occasions
- and the continued legal and bad press for globalist minions like Hillary Clinton and low polling support for the most rabidly Russophobic and hawkish GOP presidential candidates all suggests the existence of countervailing forces inside and outside the Washington Establishment
While the expression goes one should never attribute to malice what can be explained by incompetence, the fact of the matter is that many globalist minions in the Obama Administration are BOTH malicious AND incompetent. They are malicious in the sense that they, like their Commander in Chief Zero, are pathological narcissists who believe that they are far more intelligent than they are. When their egos are punctured by the reality of bruising contact with a superior, better advised opponent such as Vladimir Putin, they respond with anger and denial (as we've stated two parts of the five stages of grief, coming to grips with the loss of a loved one or in this case of Anglo-globalist Empire).
How the Western Globalists and their Neocon/Neoliberal Agents Underestimated Putin and Russia -- and Many CIA/NSA/DIA Analysts and Top Pentagon Brass Have Wised Up to This Fact
The Establishment's anger over being 'punked' by the Russians in Syria leads to bipartisan desire for revenge -- witness Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter's nasty call for the deaths of Russian troops in Syria last week. As we pointed out to the Guerrilla on the Friday night radio show, even at the height of tensions with Moscow Carter's predecessors like Caspar Weinberger or Robert McNamara would've never made such reckless and foolish remarks.
Witness Sen. John McCain's brainless calls for Stinger missiles to be supplied to anyone willing to shoot them at the Russians, and to hell with whether or not the CIA incurs enormous civil liability or hands the Russians a decades-lasting propaganda coup by having MANPADs wind up with ISIS or (God forbid) get used to shoot down an airliner (McInsane and co. also haven't factored in the possibility that spetsnaz or Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commandos, dressed as 'Yemeni tribesmen and Houthi rebels' could blow up a crapload of TOWs and Stingers in Saudi warehouses -- a problem the CIA and Saudi intelligence didn't face while arming the mujaheddin in the 1980s).
The denial of the Eurasian axis' potency and the weakening of Washington's clout in turn, leads to more mistakes, the likes of which Zerohedge correctly points out have not been made since Iraq if not the Vietnam War. For example, taking revenge for the humiliating climb down from an attack on Damascus in August 2013 that Russia and China forced on the U.S. In February 2014, the means of payback was a violent Maidan 'revolution' in Ukraine, followed by American proxy war waged against pro-Russian eastern Ukrainians. In triggering the Ukraine coup d'etat , and outsourcing the job to people like Victoria Nuland with a clear (ethnic?) animus towards the Russians that clouded their judgement, Washington's power brokers forgot a basic truth: Russia is not Libya, Iraq or even Slavic Orthodox little brother nation Serbia. (They also forgot Michael Corleone's advice to his hot headed protege in The Godfather Part III -- never hate your enemy, it clouds your judgement. Victoria Nuland clearly hates Russia, and she might hate Germany too).
True, Russia is not a superpower, but it remains a great power with enormous reserves of psychological, historical and intelligence capital, guarded by a potent, reemerging military industrial complex with nuclear parity matching the United States' strategic arsenal. Furthermore, pushing Russia into the arms of China has been acknowledged by many old foreign policy hands as a serious mistake, unraveling decades of American policy dating back to George F. Kennan (aka the author of the Containment policy) in the late 40s designed to drive wedges between the two greatest Eurasian powers. Chinese backing for Russia also means, as we told John B. Wells in December 2014, there is zero chance ruble destabilization or economic sanctions alone will bring the Kremlin to its knees.
These fundamental, strategic errors of hubris were compounded by more 'tactical' and intelligence blunders:
- pretending that 'escalation dominance' aka the Ukraine always mattering far more to Russia than it ever will to the U.S. would not force Washington to ultimately back off or start WWIII on Russia's doorstep in a militarily disadvantageous position
- false belief that Putin's government would break under the combined pressure of lower oil prices and ruble devaluation
- ignoring evidence dating back to U.S. policy papers of the 1940s that the Ukraine could not survive intact if 'independence' means being cut off from its natural trade and cultural ties with Russia and that trying to separate Ukraine from the 'Russian world' through offering NATO membership would trigger a violent backlash if not civil war from the pro-Russian Crimea and Donbass (per the cables of then U.S. Ambassador to Russia and later Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns to the Bush National Security Council in 2008, leaked to the world by Wikileaks)
- 'drinking the Bandera/UPA koolaid' -- believing one's own propaganda about Ukrainian nationalists being far better motivated, organized and combat-ready than they turned out to be. This mistake in particular is hard to forgive as the 2004 Orange Revolution backed by George Soros and Washington collapsed into bickering and Yuschenko leaving office with near-zero approval ratings in Eastern and Western Ukraine
- not anticipating the speed and professionalism of Russian actions in Crimea, which marks both an intelligence and policy failure, admitted by NATO Supreme Commander USAF Gen. Phillip Breedlove
- pretending that Kremlin Narrative/informational dominance over Russian speaking audiences should come as some sort of surprise after years of the Voice of America, Radio Free Europe/Liberty being in decline and having their narrative challenged by Russian media, particularly the rise of RT after MSM got caught lying about Iraqi WMDs and Russia rather than Georgia starting the 08/08/08 war
- expecting Russia to blunder into a trap of either 'escalate and overtly invade or surrender the Donbass' to Kiev's forces. This demonstrated typical Pentagon and CIA arrogance in overestimating their ability arm and train Ukrainians while underestimating how quickly Moscow could build a formidable 'Russian foreign legion' of volunteers to wage 'hybrid war'. This mistake is somewhat amusing in retrospect given Washington's lack of Russian-speaking specialists going up against the FSB/SVR/GRU operating so close to home in a country many of them were born and raised in when Ukraine was still part of the USSR
- ignoring the fact that if Russia was met with proxy war and perceived that the Ukrainian nationalists were being armed to crush their influence over the country, Moscow would respond in kind by leveraging its own supporters in Donbass to fight back via the same 'hybrid war' means including 4th Generation information warfare undermining the legitimacy and exposing the economic failures of the Kiev regime
- downplaying until they became obvious Ukraine's abysmal military supply situation and the low morale demonstrated by conscripts, while also wildly overstating the combat effectiveness of the ultra-nationalist/fascist units (Battalion Donbass, Azov, Aidar, Dnepro-1 & 2 et al)
- maintaining the delusion after the Ukrainian Army's humiliating defeats at Ilovaisk, Saur Mogila, Donetsk Airport and Debaltsevo that Ukraine's many thousands of casualties can be successfully hidden from Ukrainians and the world.
- reliance for rearming Kiev on the most Russophobic ex-Warsaw Pact NATO members, of whom Poland is an increasingly reluctant participant due to its own WWII history with Ukrainian (greater Galicia) nationalists
- arrogance that Washington can keep its European allies (vassals) in line in support of sanctions against Russia indefinitely
- the increasingly prevalent use of the term 'proxywar' by the mainstream media in Syria seems to reflect a desire on the part of their Washington handlers to 'win' after the perceived 'stalemate' (actually a humiliating defeat) for the U.S. in Ukraine
Cracks in the Facade of the American Deep State Turning into Crevasses inside the Power Structure
This is just a truncated list of the American foreign policy and intelligence failings in Ukraine, where the Empire of Chaos could only deliver...chaos. Where the dreams of establishing a Ukrainian South Korea to Russia's evil hermit kingdom North or a Slavic West Germany to Moscow's East Germany evaporated. Not even the Kiev regime's fanatical backers like Alexandr Motyl, Timothy Snyder or Anders Aslund can buy that crap anymore. The only 'good' news for the U.S. Deep State and the Empire it serves in Ukraine is that American ignorance about the world and a complicit media can hide many of these failures from Americans, if not an online European and global audience.
Other than Sen. Rand Paul, the rest of the Republican Party candidates including some 'outsiders' like Dr. Ben Carson sadly appear to be parroting the 'let's stick it to the Russians if not shoot down their planes' views of the hardliners. And mind you, this pattern transcends party lines as only a handful of liberal Democratic sites like DemocracyNow! or The Huffington Post appear willing to challenge the bellicose Cold War 2.0 rhetoric, with nominally 'liberal' sites like The Daily Beast or Vox even more aggressive in some cases than 'conservative' aka Rupert Murdoch owned media. However, as the Guerrilla correctly pointed out on the Friday night radio show with the Russia Analyst there is almost no public support whatsoever for confronting the Russians in Syria, despite Hillary Clinton, McInsane, Christie, Rubio and numerous other politicians' calls for such.
On the other hand, the apathy and ill-informed nature of the American public also means that despite the inability to put U.S. boots on the ground to topple Assad, the same goal that has been in place since arguably 2006 or even pre-9/11 will be pursued by proxy means. For McInsane and company, it doesn't matter how many truckloads of MANPADs or TOWs the Russians bomb as soon as they arrive from Jordan and Saudi Arabia, killing alCIAeda's truckers with their loads. Washington and Langley will just send their pet jihadists more. If the Russians kill thousands of jihadis with bombs, Smerch rockets and thermobaric weapons, well there's always an endless supply of Salafist brainwashed cannon fodder to push forward.
Given these (false) perceptions, the only thing that can stop the fanatics waging Cold War 2.0 then is being undermined...or even forced from power by the Deep State. And the only way that can happen is if Russian/Iranian (and standing behind them, Chinese) action in the Mideast forces that choice on the Empire's Deep State -- double down and lose, or cut their losses. It's now a fight to the finish between the hard liners hellbent on punishing Russia and China too for daring to challenge King Dollar and Washington's weakening imperium, thereby accelerating the Eurasians' dollar dumping, and the 'doves' or 'realists' who recognize America must retrench.
Donald Trump, with his highly publicized 'let Putin bomb ISIS...he'll get bogged down like the Russians in Afghanistan' and 'we don't really know, we may never know who shot down MH17'remarks appears to be floating trial balloons for the latter 'clan' or faction. As Simon Black smartly suggested at Zerohedge, Trump is also a specialist in what the globalists know America will have to declare at some point...bankruptcy.
[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6i4KSHhQfuc[/embed] Thierry Meyssan, a French Damascus-based journalist who is pro-Assad regime, writes that a power struggle has been going on behind the scenes and at times in the open inside the Beltway. Meyssan thinks Obama has been trying to cut deals with Putin quietly, while Hillary Clinton and her fellow globalist Gen. John Allen (now forced into retirement) and Victoria Nuland (representing the neocon Kagan family she married into) have undermined the supposed peacenik (actually not so peace-loving, drone death dealing) president at every turn:
During the first quarter of 2012, the United States and Russia, noting the stupidity of the Muslim Brotherhood’s project to seize power - the « Arab Spring » - and imagined a new distribution of power in the « Greater Middle East » which they began to implement with the Geneva Conference. But President Obama proved himself incapable of honouring his word. One week later, François Hollande called the « Friends of Syria » to re-start the war, then Kofi Annan made an international spectacle of resigning his functions as a mediator, while France, Qatar, Jordan and Israël launched the operation « Damascus Volcano » and assassinated the heads of the Syrian National Security Council.
It became clear very quickly that US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, CIA director David Petraeus and the new director of Political Affairs for the UNO, Jeffrey Feltman, had been pulling the strings since the beginning. We had to wait for the end of the US election campaign and the re-election of Barack Obama before he was able to block - or arrest - General Petraeus, and fire Hillary Clinton. As for Feltman, he remained in the shadows and continued his sabotage of White House policy by assuring everyone, by way of his subalterns Lakhdar Brahimi and Staffan de Mistura, that the [Syrian Arab] Republic would be defeated and forced, sooner or later, to accept total and unconditional surrender.
Meyssan goes on to claim that Obama was not kept 'in the loop' and had very little to do with the Kiev coup d'etat followed by the botched Ukrainian/NATO operation to quickly crush the pro-Russian uprising in Donbass. Meyssan implies, but does not quite say, that Obama finally reigned in his nominal neocon underlings in both Ukraine and Syria:
Obama’s policy (appeasement with Russia and the re-orienting of US troops towards the Far East) was brutally destroyed by the success of the « Colour Revolution » in Ukraine, in November 2013. This operation, which terminated the process of destruction of Ukraine and the isolation of Russia which had begun as soon as the USSR was dislocated, was triggered without the knowledge of the White House. The United States prepare their secret operations years in advance, and launch them when the political opportunity presents itself. This time, someone gave the order without referring to the US National Security Council. The result was a crisis without precedent – the independence of Crimea, which refused the coup d’état, it’s incorporation into the Russian Federation, the revolts in Donbass [Donetsk?] and Lugansk, Western sanctions against Moscow and the retaliatory sanctions by Russia against the Western powers. In short, the interruption of all East-West relations.
Curiously, President Obama seemed to allow his « hawks » to impose a policy that he had not chosen himself. However, he continued the secret negotiations with Iran which he had initiated at the beginning of his second mandate. As the talks dragged on, it was not until July 2015 that an agreement was reached .
Again we'd like to buy what Meyssan is selling here, but we think Obama's sense of humiliation in September 2013 after getting punk'd by Putin and forced to back off a direct U.S. attack on Assad allowed the neocons to manipulate him into their revenge on Russia, the overthrow of Yanukovych in Ukraine. Furthermore, retired SVR Lt. Gen. Leonid Reshetnikov, the man we said in July was Putin's 'grey cardinal' who runs the Russian version of the RAND Corporation 'spun off' from the foreign intelligence service in Moscow's Yasenevo district (the Russian counterpart to the connotation of 'Langley'), has stated on the record that Victoria Nuland and other super-bureaucrats like her answer to the New World Order, not Obama.
Reshetnikov does not exactly use the phrase 'NWO', but has given at least two interviews speaking of a hidden global government that Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk the Ukrainian president and prime minister serve, despite or because of their status as State Department puppets. In other words, there are more than one sets of strings pulling on the various minions and factions in Ukraine to ensure that the globalists' dirty work there gets done. To this point of Reshetnikov's (somewhat contradicting Meyssan's good cop Obama/bad cop neocons theory) that the globalists and not Obama or some State Dept. w(b)itches are running the show in Syria and Ukraine, we suspect that 'W the Intelligence Insider' would be in agreement.
How the Spooks Are Not Only Undermining Obama, but the U.S. Proxy 'War Effort' in Syria AND Ukraine
We already mentioned the strong possibility that if the CIA supplies Stinger or other man portable surface to air missile systems to jihadists in Syria to use against Russian jets and helicopters pounding targets at lower levels someone at Langley undermining that operation. The risks of MANPADs falling into the hands of State Department designated, al-Qaeda allegiance pledging terrorist organization Al-Nusra front and the Islamic State are enormous. The 2012 scandal over Bengazhi gate already reportedly involved the shipment of MANPADs to Syria, some of which appeared on the battlefield in 2013.
Nobody inside Langley or the E-Ring of the Pentagon wants to be the guy caught with his signature on any type of invoice or order for MANPADs to Saudi Arabia or Qatar that can be verified via serial numbers ended up in Al-Nusra or ISIS hands. Especially with the overwhelming evidence that Al-Nusra already got TOW missiles officially intended for the so-called 'Free Syrian Army' which is actually indistinguishable in many parts of Syria from the 'FSA'. Even if one assumes many CIA officers are totally amoral fears that Russia would gleefully expose a collection of American Stingers found inside an ISIS or Al-Nusra camp by spetsnaz and put the footage all over RT and YouTube would have to give Langley's most fanatical Cold Warriors some CYA 'pucker factor'. Unless that is they simply don't care anymore or are convinced their globalist bosses will give them cover in the mainstream media and through armies of trolls who will insist the Russians made the whole 'Stingers captured in Al-Nusra/ISIS hands' incident up.
Veteran investigative journalist (who exposed the My Lai massacre during the Vietnam War) discusses the furious internal debate inside the U.S. intelligence community over the faked intel regarding the false flag chemical attack in East Ghouta, Syria of August 2013
- Shortly after the MH17 crash, a group of intel operators said “we don't know a name, we don't know a rank and we're not even 100 per cent sure of a nationality”. Apparently they have nothing to add to that statement. One remembers that Kerry and Psaki were quite certain that there was a “mountain of evidence”. Surely the mighty US intel effort has more to offer than tweets and Bellingcat. But we have seen none of it.[embed]https://twitter.com/redpilltimes/status/654569593470611456[/embed][According a spokesman for the Dutch Safety Board (DSB) which put out a laughable report designed to absolve the Ukrainians and point fingers at Russia and the pro-Russian Novorossiya rebels in Donbass, U.S. intelligence officers briefed DSB members on satellite photos and showed them several relevant to MH17, but they cannot disclose what or which locations these sat pics revealed because they're top secret -- JWS]
- My belief that the satellite images “proving” Russian invasions of Ukraine were amateur affairs has been strengthened by the high quality, detailed photos we have seen in Syria where the Russians actually have intervened in strength. This led me to suspect that there wasn't any real evidence in the Ukrainian case. This German general agrees.
- A report that intel people tried to interfere to stop the Libya attack: “You should see these internal State Department reports that are produced in the State Department that go out to the Congress. They're just full of stupid, stupid facts.”
- Suggestions based on her e-mails that Clinton was listening more to private advisors and newspaper editorials than intel sources.
Small items to be sure, and none conclusive. But maybe we have moved to the next stage in which the intel people actively object in public.
Screenshot from an RT TV report on the Judicial Watch obtained, declassified Defense Intelligence Agency assessment of 2012 that predicted the rise of a Salafist principality in eastern Syria precisely where the Islamic State super terrorist gang has seized power. The 'damage control' on the DIA report has been weak (having 'ex' NSA disinfo specialist John R. Schindler bash the DIA as a red headed step child, amateurish member of the intel community) to non-existent (just have mainstream media do their best to ignore it or treat the report as an isolated case).
- The former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency (an institution high up in the US intel hierarchy) has confirmed that the DIA had warned the Administration that extremist salafists were the major force driving the insurgency in Syria and that an ISIS-like organization could be created. Here he is saying that he thinks the Administration took a “wilful decision” to ignore the warning.[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-r4-avi8LyU[/embed]Things that make you go hmmmm - former chief of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) Lt. Gen. (ret) Michael T. Flynn undermining Washington's 'moderate' jihadists Narrative for Syria -- on Putin's evil Kremlin propaganda channel RT!
- In September it was revealed that 50 intel analysts had formally complained that their conclusions were being distorted “to adhere to the administration’s public line that the U.S. is winning the battle against ISIS and al Nusra, al Qaeda’s branch in Syria”.Stay tuned. No doubt Russia's intervention in Syria, which is blowing the whole incoherent US policy apart, will bring more revelations. After all, no one wants to take the blame for catastrophe and failure. Especially when they're not responsible for the bad advice, airy projections and falsified information that got into the mess.
The Daily Beast, which is normally a reliable cheerleader for any BS about Russia neocon fanatic Michael D. Weiss or disgraced ex-NSA academic John R. Schindler can promote, has given an interesting amount of coverage to intelligence community controversies over the phoney war vs. ISIS. Sooner or later we've predicted the mainstream media will also have to explain where the Islamic State gets its money and how it manages to sell smuggled crude oil at below world market prices without financial intermedaries getting arrested or 'turned' by the U.S. and allied intelligence services as was the case of Bin Laden's money men after 9/11.
As the Russia Analyst suggested back in August the Turks and the now labeled as a 'dictator' Erdoğan are the perfect fall guys to explain the spectacular rise of ISIS. As we also reported this week, Turkey seems to sense they're about to be thrown under the bus by Washington and perhaps Moscow if they don't try to give the Americans and Russians what they want. An impossible, pretzel twist predicament if there ever was one, which is why we expect Erdoğan to either be voted or forced out of office soon. We also expect more leaks and bold statements from former high level intelligence community members like ret. Lt. Gen. Flynn about the true origins of the Islamic State.
As Russian President Vladimir V. Putin said pointedly in his September 28, 2015 address to the United Nations General Assembly:
In these circumstances, it is hypocritical and irresponsible to make loud declarations about the threat of international terrorism while turning a blind eye to the channels of financing and supporting terrorists, including the process of trafficking and illicit trade in oil and arms. It would be equally irresponsible to try to manipulate extremist groups and place them at one's service in order to achieve one's own political goals in the hope of later dealing with them or, in other words, liquidating them.
To those who do so, I would like to say — dear sirs, no doubt you are dealing with rough and cruel people, but they're in no way primitive or silly. They are just as clever as you are, and you never know who is manipulating whom. And the recent data on arms transferred to this most moderate opposition is the best proof of it.
We believe that any attempts to play games with terrorists, let alone to arm them, are not just short-sighted, but fire hazardous (ph). This may result in the global terrorist threat increasing dramatically and engulfing new regions, especially given that Islamic State camps train militants from many countries, including the European countries.
Unfortunately, dear colleagues, I have to put it frankly: Russia is not an exception. We cannot allow these criminals who already tasted blood to return back home and continue their evil doings. No one wants this to happen, does he?
'No one' indeed would want ISIS to attack Russia and destabilize other countries, including their sponsors in Turkey and Saudi Arabia...would they?
"If you're not at the table, you're on the menu." This sharky Wall Street expression seems applicable to the situation of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan today, the man we predicted back in August would become the 'fall guy' for the spectacular rise of ISIS, which was certainly supported by Erdoğan's Islamist Turkish government. While we don't feel sorry for Erdoğan, neither do we accept his status as the father of ISIS when he was at best, a hired hand for the super-terrorist group's true patrons in the Persian Gulf Arab capitols, London, Paris and Washington. Nonetheless, as a once useful globalist dupe with neo-Ottoman delusions of grandeur fueled by the Muslim Brotherhood, we won't be sorry to see Erdoğan's go -- hopefully via the ballot box rather than the Turkish army ammo box.A curious constellation if not convergence seems to be underway between the interests of the pro-Kurdish voices in Washington, the Israelis (who thanks to the MV Mavi Marmaraprovocation, have no love lost for the would be neo-Ottoman sultan in Ankara), and the Kremlin's Mideast allies. And by the latter, the Russia Analyst means firstly Damascus and Tehran, but also Baghdad, Cairo and...Irbil?
Watching cellphone video footage of Russia's Kalibr cruise missiles zipping low over Kurdish northern Iraq en route to obliterating ISIS ammo dumps in Syria, we were struck by the locals' rather relaxed reaction to these low-flying missiles. The Kurds may have presumed these were American Tomahawk missiles flying toward the Islamic State/Daesh targets, and only found out later that they witnessed Moscow striking jihadists from 1,500 kilometers away.
Russia's Plan to Engage the Syrian Arab Army, Iranians, Iraqis AND Kurds Against its Terrorist Enemies
Nonetheless, the Kurds have shown signs that they could be prepared to attack ISIS lines more aggressively and make a push west towards the Euphrates, potentially cutting off Al-Nusra (aka Al-Qaeda) supply lines just as Iran and the Syrian Arab Army are attacking Aleppo from the southwest. If the Iraqi government backed by Russian intelligence and airpower keeps punching holes in the group's porous front lines and continues killing off many senior lieutenants of the Daesh syndicate, the strong mistrust between Baghdad and the Kurds might be overcome on this issue. This would represent the 'three hammers, one anvil' to smash Daesh and Al-Nusra/Al-Qaeda in Syria we spoke of on Friday night's Guerrilla Radio program, which we believe was Putin's (#Brutalistan) plan all along.
Over the weekend the Iraqis claimed to have wounded Abū Bakr al-Baghdādi, the kingpin of ISIS himself. We remain skeptical that al-Baghdadi's leadership was ever as important to ISIS as the mainstream media has tried to portray, with its simplistic 'kill the boss' and win the video game style narratives. Some in the alternative media have even suggested that al-Baghdadi might be an actor, like the bin Laden esque Ben Kingsley character 'the Mandarin' in Iron Man 3. Others have claimed that Sen. John "bats--t crazy neocon" McCain met with al-Baghdadi who was 'out of character' that day in 2013 after slipping into Syria for a photo op with the future Cobra Commander of the Levant. In any case, we've noticed just in the past 48 hours some major diplomatic and media war developments which hint at a diplomatic breakthrough, facilitated by Russia's intervention in Syria.
First, in our previous column for RogueMoney we pointed to the Saudis and United Arab Emirates sending their crown princes to Moscow -- with purported Saudi heir apparent Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud the most prominent Gulf Arab envoy, in certain respects outranking the Saudi foreign minister Adel al-Jubeir. We noted that approximately 30-year-old bin Salman al Saud was meeting behind closed doors with Vladimir Putin for the second time since late August. We also pointed to al-Jubeir's announcement after the meeting that Syria was discussed and the Saudi demand that Assad step down remained, but Riyadh was willing to accept a transition period of intermediate length. We suggested this represented not only the Western powers but also the Saudi hardliners finally bowing to reality on the ground in Syria, at least grudgingly. If the Saudis are negotiating with Putin, then it stands to reason that even the Jordanians and Israelis have to quietly back away from their proxies in Syria as well.
Second, in another column and in our Friday night appearance on the Guerrilla Radio program, we pointed out many reasons why Turkey could not afford a direct conflict with Russia over Assad and would likely seek a face-saving 'out'. The idea for example, that Turkey and its mostly low value added industries and power grid could manage without 20 billion cubic feet of annual gas imports from Russia, seemed unlikely. As did the laughable notion that Turkish farmers, tour operators and resort owners, many of them with relatives in or other connections to the military and 'Deep State' security services, were prepared to sacrifice their lucrative trade with the Russians for the sake of the Beltway bandit losers saving face in Syria!
As we pointed out to the Guerrilla, the Turks had not even managed to impose a single 'safety inspection' on Russian military cargoes along the 'Tartus express' through the Bosporus, and it seemed hardly likely now given the Turks' sense of abandonment by Washington that they would provoke a fight with the Russians to make NATO hawks happy. Furthermore, we also mentioned that the Turkish military and at least some elements of the 'Deep State' had been trying to diversify the country's military hardware to include Russian and Chinese armaments for some time, eventually backing down due to Washington's objections.
Last but not least among our stated reasons why Turkey would not pick a fight with Russia, as demonstrated by the Turks accepting Moscow's apologies for inadvertent air space violations, was the risk of the Kurdish insurgency suddenly receiving a major influx of Russian weapons perfect for guerrillas like the Kornet ATGM. Time did not permit us to add on the Guerrilla Radio show Ankara's fears about kompromat emerging regarding Erdoğan personally. Including his alleged relatives ties to the Al-Nusra if not ISIS jihadists and the lucrative kickbacks from the Islamic State's illicit oil smuggling out of territory it controls in Iraq and Syria.
How The Saker's 'brothers in arms' at Southfront think the humiliated Empire will Strike Back in Syria...
The Russia Analyst Was Right...Faced with the 1,200 ib Russian Bear, the Turkish Wolf Seems to be Backing Down Will Washington Recognize its Allies in Ankara, Amman and Riyadh Aren't Willing to Bleed to Punish Russia?
On Tuesday we received some confirmation that the Russia Analyst's assumptions were likely correct.
Although we are not experts on Turkey and its Deep State politics or economy by any means, we do know how many tens of billions in annual trade both licit (gas, tourists, and produce) and illicit (hash?) depend on Ankara remaining at least a 'frenemy' of Moscow, as Turkey has been for the past four years. Here are the signs Turkey might be turning Vlad's way:
- Sputnik reports "Turkey Ready to Discuss Syrian War Settlement with Russia, Iran". Now that the Russians are a party to the conflict at Assad's behest there is no ambiguity any Ankara peace proposals with Damascus and Tehran having to go through Moscow. "Ankara is ready to discuss the Syrian civil war settlement with Russia and Iran, Turkey’s Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said Monday. According to Davutoglu, the intention to cooperate on the issue does not mean that Ankara shares Russia's position on Syrian President Bashar Assad who Moscow considers to be the legitimate power in Syria."
- One can dismiss Sputnik as a pro-Kremlin, state-funded Russian source. But this headline from Reuters which has been strongly pro-Kiev and NATO in this second Cold War is harder to shrug off: "Turkey Warns U.S., Russia against backing Kurdish militia in Syria". If the Turks are such a staunch member of NATO and buddy-buddy with Washington, why should Ankara be worried about the Americans and Russians deciding it's time for a de facto expanded Kurdistan at their expense? Isn't Russia NATO and the Turks enemy that evilly invaded Ukraine, suppressing those Crimean Tatars Turkey claims to care so much about? Isn't the Kremlin now propping up the bloody-hands dictator Bashir al-Assad through direct force a sign of failure, as a flustered Big Zero told CBS News? To put in layman's terms, what ya got to worry about Mr. Erdoğan if Jens Stoltenberg and NATO have your back (maybe a knife in it)?[embed]https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/653992230827466752[/embed]
- Despite the hot air we linked to above coming from NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg about how the Alliance is gearing up to defend Turkey's air space from rascally Russian jets, talk is cheap. Actions speak louder than words. The U.S. and Germany pulling their Patriot missile batteries out of southern Turkey, where they had created a no-fly zone for Assad's air force close to the Turkish border, is a tacit admission that the U.S./NATO won't oppose Russian jets bombing ISIS/AlNusra/'Free Syrian Army' everywhere they like in Syria. Including everywhere up to the Turkish border. Also, if the Turks were gearing up to fight the Russians at their border or inside Syria, they certainly wouldn't be allowing Russian aircraft to photograph their military installations this week under the Open Skies Treaty. Again in blunt language, Stoltenberg and the MSM outlets that breathlessly quote his blather about defending Turkey from the Russian threat are yapping toy poodles.[embed]https://twitter.com/AlArabiya_Eng/status/652008315623481344[/embed]
- Given point no. 3 and Obama's weak response to the Russian offensive consisting of parachuting ammo from C-17s to anyone and everyone who wants it in northern Syria, including Al-Nusra, no sane Turkish leader should have any illusions anymore about being able to threaten or bleed the Russians into backing down.[embed]https://twitter.com/SenJohnMcCain/status/653947393331888129?lang=en[/embed] Nor should they count on the likes of Sen. McInsane, his BFF Sen. Lindsey Queenie Graham, or New Jersey Governor Krispy Kreme, or the old globalist consigliere Z. Bzrezinski cajoling Obama into doing anything other than folding.[embed]https://twitter.com/antiwar1984/status/654149672295137280[/embed]
- Underscoring point no. 4 in this logical chain of analysis is the Reuters-advertised Iranian ground assault on Aleppo, which could be underway by this weekend. Reportedly commanded by none other than Iranian Revolutionary Guards Gen. Qassem Soleimani, this assault will be backed by the full aerial fist of Russia's growing jet and helicopter gunship fleet in the country, which is reportedly being expanded with even more machines at Latakia airport. Thousands of Iranian soldiers and Shi'a militiamen from Iraq who can act as Arabic interpreters are expected to participate in a major pincer move attack to cut off the city's Al-Nusra and 'Free Syrian Army' defenders from resupply.[embed]https://twitter.com/newgreatgame/status/654054400395247616?lang=en[/embed] The northern Syrian city has been a rebel stronghold after they took it in bloody urban combat, grinding down the SAA over many months in the civil war's 'Stalingrad'. Again, as we've stated once before here at Rogue Money, amateurs talk tactics, professionals analyze logistics. Without their Euphrates lifeline, not only Al-Nusra front but also ISIS will die in very large numbers. And without wholehearted Saudi support for the jihadists, there is little prospect of a counterattack or major influx of fighters and arms via south from the Saudi Kingdom and Jordan either. The Qataris can talk tough all they like but it won't be their bases and warehouses full of their TOW missiles bound for Syrian jihadists getting blown up by 'Yemeni resistance/Houthi fighters' in a protracted proxy war.[embed]https://twitter.com/Ibra_Joudeh/status/653934609504317440[/embed][embed]https://twitter.com/OffGuardian0/status/653970537400537088[/embed]Sorry neocons, but your jihadi manpower for the Syrian meatgrinder isn't limitless. Who knew?Remember, unlike in Daily Beast/Brookings Doha/'Free Syrian Army' twitter propaganda, there's a hell of a lot more to resisting a massive combined arms assault and being able to counterattack than just getting some TOW missiles and MANPADs.[embed]https://twitter.com/BosnjoBoy/status/654081828358369280[/embed]Particularly when Russian gunship pilots are trained and conveying to their Syrian proteges wolfpack tactics that allow Mi-24 crews to spot for each other and swarm over the battlefield, looking for the first plume of a MANPAD or TOW launch to kill the gunners before they can slip away.[embed]https://twitter.com/Ibra_Joudeh/status/653593162821320704[/embed]The Syrian Arab Army, for all its losses in armor the first week of its ground offensive, also seems to be learning from the Russians how to set infantry screens for the tanks (as seen in the Donbass with the Novorossiya Armed Forces training videos published on YouTube). The Syrians, Iranians and Hezbollah will also start using their own Kornet ATGM gunners to spot and blow away the alCIAeda TOW missileers who thought they were invincible and their CIA-provided satphones/radios undetectable by Russian electronic warfare planes. The more out in the open any 'rebel' or ISIS unit, the more prone it is to being bombed or spotted by Syrian (and Iranian/Russian?) special forces who can call in a massive artillery strike, especially on units trying to flee in those Toyota Tundra and Hillux pick up trucks the Treasury Department says it wants to know how the rebels and ISIS obtained.The sub-room temperature IQ morons who haven't shaved off their beards and run like hell for Turkey yet left in ISIS' ranks are going to find it even worse, as they don't even have the cover of urban or semi-urban terrain to provide them with cover from Russian bombing and GRAD/Smerch saturation rocket attacks.At any rate, the neocons' fantasies of reliving their Rambo III and Charlie Wilson's War version of the Soviet-Afghan war will have to wait, as Vladimir Putin has already ruled out Russian ground troops. Moscow may lose helicopter pilots, Russian jets may suffer maintenance issues under the constant pressure of round the lock combat sorties, but the relief crews appear to be on their way, along with more air frames. And for the foreseeable future, Putin has vowed not to deploy Russian ground troops, instead letting Moscow's airpower support the Syrians, Iranians and...Iraqis plus Kurds?
These points bring us back to the title of this article: are the Turks getting ready to finally throw in the towel on their efforts to overthrow Assad and Salafi/Takfiri-ze Syria?
The Russia Analyst won't know for certain for a while, with the hard fighting this autumn and early winter likely to tell the tale. If the Al-Nusra front and the 'FSA' start running for their lives and huge holes open in their lines, with the Syrian Arab Army re-taking all of Hama and Aleppo, then we can be almost certain either the supply lines from Turkey were cut to the jihadists or Ankara quietly threw its jihadis under the bus. The double-tap killing of scores during an Ankara peace demonstration by two Daesh suicide bombers operating in tandem last weekend has underscored the dangers of blowback to the Turkish State. So too has the increasing onslaught of bad press and suggestions that the Turkish security services themselves may have been behind the terrorist attacks receiving increasing prominence in Western mainstream media. When the conservative, hawkish Cold Warrior 'Moonies' at the Washington Times and the pro-Putin Ft. Russ blog are both bashing Erdoğan, then we do not believe his political career is long for this world.
Again, the same Turkish government that believes Washington is about to throw it under the bus -- and might have secret handshake deals with Putin on the creation of Vice President Biden's proposal of an internationally recognized Kurdistan -- is going double down on MORE money, weapons and feeding jihadi cannon fodder against Syria and Iran? Really? If Turkey does join in McInsane-esque half-baked plans for a suicidal jihadi counterattack against Russian intervention, then we can only say: the country will have either a military coup to stop that nonsense or a real civil war. And not just between Turks and Kurds, but also between Turks slavishly loyal to the Empire and those willing to at least keep their Eurasian options open. You can bet, given how well Ankara has alienated millions of pro-Western secular minded Turks, how quickly that fight will be over. And without use of Turkey's land and support for the jihadists fighting Assad, it's game over for the Saudis, Qataris and Israelis on the southern Syrian front as well. A fact Riyadh and Jerusalem both seem to have acknowledged in private with Putin since August.
Speaking of Vladimir Vladimirovich, in an interview with Russia's leading news show host Vladimir Solovyov, expressed his condolences to the Turkish President and people. He also reiterated his calls for Turkey and the U.S. to join with Moscow in eradicating the terrorists.
The propaganda campaign insisting that Russia isn't bombing ISIS and is using anti-Daesh missions as a cover to cynically preserve Assad hasn't worked very well, even among many Americans, as well as politicians and citizens of NATO member European states. The Russia Analyst remains concerned that the Empire's nastiest Deep State minions, the same people that brought Ukraine the false flag shoot down of Malaysian Airlines flight 17, could make a desperate false flag or other attempt to shift the momentum back to their side. However, we are convinced based on the open source diplomatic and military evidence we've compiled in the past week that the Guerrilla is correct, and a new Eurasian order out of the Empire's chaos is emerging in the Middle East.