Don’t get caught alone in the dark with your defenses down, the paper wolves are everywhere. Cover your arse, as past performance is currently meaningless.
I told V last week that I was having a tough time getting my mind around this installment, and it had become a loosely fitted together book, instead of an ‘article/installment’. But, an email last week from a Wolf Pack member tied the loosely written ends quite nicely. It is still “way long”, but that being said, & due to professional experiences, these loose ends indicate a merging is taking place. A merging of the “on the ground evidentiary trail” with the “speculated evidentiary trail” is emerging from the fog, as the indicators in the coming King Dollar' failure/collapse' further materialize.
The “titled” headline is a bit of a paradox, a paradox as to how we decide to allocate our personal investments. It is the disclaimer of disclaimers, found in some form or fashion on nearly every western investment product. In fact maybe it should revolve around “the Unstoppable Force Meets the Immovable Object,” of decision making. The arrogant western mindset is stuck on, especially with the ‘red white & blue undies crowd’, “We always come out on top, nothing bad is going to happen!” In my case that last quote is usually followed by a, “Besides Wolf Gray I think you are being a bit too emotional, have you seen the stock market lately?”
If you truly believe in the paper markets, I would love for you to read on, but I suspect you will just be calling me a fool, and laughing. If that is you, see if you can get past the first “Hard Asset Tip” a few paragraphs below, and then decide if you want to continue any further.
From my perspective where business is in question, I now give history just a brief glance. If it is from an emotional, or spiritual perspective, I give it a long review, but again if it is from a business perspective, I only give history a cursory glance. That last viewpoint will probably be somewhat opposite of my RM associates, but variety is the spice of life. Bear in mind though that emotions, and spiritual inputs are very key in business, but when it comes to numbers, and logic, history can sometimes hide the truth. Maybe it depends on just how far you look back into the pertinent history………??? And, how "past performance does not guarantee future results."
After all, nearly everyone of us, makes our decisions on what? Past performance! So if we take the titled disclaimer seriously, it should leave us blindly choosing to stand on the paper investment side of the playing field. More later, after a review of the news headlines, with just a Wolf Gray “lightning round” response (I will bloviate on a couple of them), but first a Hard Asset Alert……..
Hard Asset Tip with an Alert:
Ironically I beat these frickin’ war drums in the last installment, but I had no idea of the following business evidence….!!!! The 'bs' in the following link, is now actually being argued, among the stooges on capitol hill. What ‘bs’ you may ask? The ‘bs’ of making access to 401K’s more difficult & confusing, “ObamaCare" style, via a fiduciary rule being put forth by the DOL (dept of labor). Check this out, forwarded to me by an astute Wolf Pack associate…..
Read the argument by Putnam's CEO, and pay special attention to this rebuttal:
“As drafted, it would severely limit access to routine investment advice for tens of millions of retirement savers,” Reynolds argued. “It would also make it nearly impossible for service providers to present investment advice and options to businesses with less than 100 employees.
Why do I feel this is significant? Why else would a “big dog” from a paper business be arguing with the DOL & capitol hill? Because he enjoys the scenery? Of course not, he sees a law being considered that will make it difficult to sell his qualified plans, and their attached products, and services. That’s it pure and simple, a sign of “business self preservation”. Arguing against a law, that is in the form, of overly complex rules, and restrictions for his potential clients. A complexity that in good times would make it a tough sell for his sales executives, but in trying times, “fuhgeddaboudit”!
As detailed last week, this very obvious fascist technique is similar to the ZeroCare implementation. Apparently the Putnam CEO felt the same way, by literally comparing it to the farcical ZeroCare in his arguments. So what does it all mean? It now is clear the loose ends are being organized, tied down, soon to be put to rest, and later put to the test. Thus the foundations, and frame work are being put into place. That way, if the architects feel the heat coming down they may just decide to, clamp down the exits. No problems, not with a well laid foundation. This whole charade is nothing but a, “soothing bridging of a painful gap”.
In other words, to slap us in the face with Dodd Frank, right out of the gate, may be risky. Instead let’s first put in a 'policemen/gatekeepers', via absurd fiduciary rules, that will help to covertly install the Dodd Frank fascist paper takeover, gradually or in total. I agree with the Putnam CEO, it truly is ZeroCare-esque, if you ask me.
Get out of paper, folks. I used to advocate doing it in an inconspicuous manner, but now it appears it is time to put a little "Get the Hell Out of Dodge" high octane fuel in your exit plans.
At least look at your options, and act accordingly, or as you see fit. In your more Plato-like moments, ask yourself what other purposes could these shenanigans have?
If your inner Plato comes out, please consider this, what might they do if they feel an anti-establishment candidate (as we all know, that is happening right now) getting too close to their "multi trillion dollar qualified plan" feeding trough? A candidate possibly peddling truth(s)? Remember, I have always maintained that they feel it is their money, not yours! Might they, the PPPTB (paper pushing powers that be) pull the trigger on the inaugural Dodd Frank champagne christening bottle a little ahead of schedule, covertly or otherwise, if they feel the pressure mounting?
For me personally I say, "Enjoy your champagne, ass holes! The rest of you real Americans can come over to my place, pull up a chair baby, have an ice cold one, while I get out the barbecue, and we'll all belt out a chorus of, "kiss my hard asset arse!"
They are a bunch of “confidence men”, which is an old fashion term for “Con Men”. I will let Jeff Healey (r.i.p.) belt out the musical blues message…….
Hard Asset Tip Part Two, Investment Slant:
Wolf Grayism: I don’t personally consider the option of investing in mining shares, to be worthy of entering the risk/reward “consideration conundrum”. It ain’t because I did some fancy “Top down or Bottom up” analysis. That stuff is above my head, and bores me to tears, plus I can rely on the laser sharp mind of Ken Schortgen Jr to clear the fog of the numbers.
I don’t invest in mining shares, because of one unknown variable, one real big bugaboo, in troubling times, “The Human Factor”. The manipulative outside human factor has served to destroy these companies, and the product value, of their hands on production efforts. Not to mention, these guys have to deal with angry stockholders, and thus are subject to the additional “above board” manipulations of greedy humans.
Thus I prefer to eliminate that variable entirely, especially in the face of the recent history of the PPPTB controlling the people involved. GSBC’s (gold & silver bars & coins) in physical form, it is just the way I roll. Will there be great opportunities in the mining sector? I don’t know, probably so, if you know where to look. Especially with the coming big potential rise in metals prices, but until it stabilizes I still see it being subject to human frailties.
Count me out, especially when I can own the real thing. While it is still available!
Note the previous line, and then apply that to the future supply/demand equation. Hey, maybe the mining companies will knock on your door for some supply, ya never know. Own it yourself, ironically some of it may have been retrieved from the very companies, shutting down, and/or in survival mode. And to boot it all, and based on sources I trust, these companies have been operating, at or typically ABOVE their costs, just to get the product to you. To you, below their costs…! Now that is a business model operating in failure, except on my side of the bargaining table.
So while it lasts get in on a retail purchasers, “bonanza”, or no pun intended, a “Gold Rush!” “A Gold Rush with a Silver Lining….!!!” GSBC’s it is how I roll brother.
Regarding the above link, refer to the theory in the first hard asset tip, and connect the dots, with the prior installment in mind.
Ah the beat goes on. The above reiterates that some of the music’s beat is coming under the control of “Economic Mother Nature”!
Hold your nose for this next video, or close your eyes during the segments that turn your stomach.
What a Zero!
The above link is what Ross Perot, the original manufacturing Paul Revere, warned us of. Put simply, this my friends is not what a robust economy is built upon. In fact these are job characteristics that signal the last stages of a dying economy. Meaning you are left with a sputtering ‘business/economic’ machine that is gasping for air & trying to come up with some form of job market. And it looks like any form of job market will do.
All I can say to the above link, would anyone have thought an article like that could be possible, or even printable? Not without a fascist bias. For those that think helicopter money would be cool, keep in mind, when in the past did you ever get a "free lunch" without strings attached? If you got one, it probably came from family, and that is the key they want you to be a part of, their demented corrupt family. And, in their family, rest assured strings will be attached. This kind of crap just plain "SUCKS". We should all be screaming, "Stay out of our lives you s.o.b.'s!!!!!"
These stats come across the news, and I let out a big yawn. Is it real or is it memorex?
As to the above link, all that needs to be said is move on nothing to see here folks.
World trade collapses, and the dollar languishes in volume. But not to worry, Zero, Yellen, and the rest of the D.C. gang will ride to the rescue great jobs, GDP bonanza.
In the above link from Michael Snyder, you get just what you would expect in a failing debt ridden economy, now in it’s finality, being presided over by “Economic Mother Nature” ……. “Failures & Debt Defaults @ Record Pace” ….. This stuff is getting in your face, at least for those willing to face the music.
Next up the bond king, Bill Gross once again, fires a warning shot across the western bows. I detect the fragrance of ‘cya’, and “I told ya so, don’t blame me folks!”
In this next video, I suggest all the male readers get their jockstraps on tight, and put in a protective cup, because Miss Barnhardt is PO’d. For just under 4 minutes after the 11:00 minute mark in this interview, Ann let's us all have it. I still recommend, all men go put on their jockstraps with a cup included (bring a spare), as she is kicking with steel toed boots. Hard to argue with her though, as her solutions have some merit to them. She is a character.
In the next interview, also from “financeandliberty.com”, Miss Barnhardt tells it like it is, once again. From the 7:00 mark on she hits on some hard truths, but again I recommend a cup with a quality jockstrap for the male listeners.
For the most part these particular Ann Barnhardt interviews, have little to do with the messages in this installment, but I love listening to her, “beating the hell out of everything fascist in sight!” It is just plain, intellectually entertaining.
This next link is from Paul Craig Roberts, and it is thought provoking to say the least. And, does a fairly detailed point by ‘constitutional article' point analysis.
That being said, this article by Dr. Roberts raises some excellent questions with respect to whether the US Constitution, and Bill of Rights still exists? And by default does the USA, even still exist? On the basis of sovereignty, as defined by my 'mac’….’the authority of a state to govern itself or another state’,….the US has probably lost it's sovereignty. Especially when you consider, as mentioned on the prior pages of RM, the huge percentage of it's debt that is now owned across it’s physical boundaries. So is it any surprise to theorize it has no constitution actively in place?
Note this is probably fodder for another installment, and like Miss Barnhardt’s interview making this installment a bit long. But the important question of, “if the constitution still exists in the minds of the people carries massive weight”. If it does still exist in their minds, then the dissolving of the document may not be enforceable, for example: “Hey I see your new laws buddy, but they don’t match mine, so stick that in your pipe & smoke it, and get off my damned property!” Like I said fodder for another installment.
Trump Raises WG's Eyebrows Once Again:
In this next link, we get back on the installment point, as Donald Trump raises, the “why & why now” question, in a big way.
I hate to agree with the Washington Post headline, but check out this excerpt:
In any case, Trump dismissed concern that his comments, which the WaPo said "are exceedingly unusual, if not unprecedented, for a major party front-runner", which is precisely Trump's style, "could potentially affect financial markets."
And, I now can answer the "why & why now", "The Donald" is a 'roguemoney.net' subscriber:
"I think we’re sitting on an economic bubble. A financial bubble... We’re not at 5 percent unemployment. We’re at a number that’s probably into the 20s if you look at the real number."
At the end of this ‘article/interview’ Trump boastfully says (which he has to in an election season). He can't be too negative, just witness how the "real", but negative truth was received for a prior presidential candidate, Ross Perot …..Here is Mr. Trump once again....
”I can fix it. I can fix it pretty quickly...I would do a tax cut. You have to do a tax cut. Because we’re the highest-taxed nation in the world. But I would start...I would immediately start renegotiating our trade deals with Mexico, China, Japan and all of these countries that are just absolutely destroying us. "
Please note, that "quickly" in the above quote is not clearly defined. Allow me to assist, it ain’t going to be completely fixed by the next quarterly earnings announcements, post the rate cut. That's for damn sure, so sayeth Wolf Gray, and anybody else with common sense. I also can't resist questioning the ease of renegotiating positively with China, as the position of strength has been lost (they own our debt, duh huh), but Japan & Mexico are different stories. I do like his overall sentiments though, and the attached logic. As regards China, I recognize the salesman's bravado, again the Perot method wouldn't be well received by the current wimpy public.
This next link raises the Wolf Gray’s hackles, and his eyebrows. It gets right back to one of my favorite sayings, “Money is a whore, it goes where the next "trick" is”……with that in mind, I think we need to ask, "why now, and where is the whore headed?"
With the above link in mind, one has to ask, “Why would these vultures give up a decades old business position?” The lightning round is over, and the rants are up next. Not all of the above news items, are tied to the merging of the speculative & "on the ground" news evidentiary trail, but the next rants are.
Wolf Gray Rant Number 1:
I am starting to lose my patience with all forms of media regarding the influences of the “real level of corruption.” This is something that is almost never reported by the msm, and is now even avoided by the alternative media. Yes I think the alternative media sucks as well in this regard. There must be some sort of hands off policy regarding the truth, and depending on the media that is reporting it, it is also appears to be held within certain "truth" limits. Hey maybe, they just can't expose too much truth, because they have one of those electronic dog collars with an invisible truth fence that knocks the shit out of them if they go to far!
In other words you can go this far….., but don’t go past this “invisible line.” especially when reporting our paper corruption. This next article by Dave Kranzler, whom I like to listen to, and/or read his material, has me having to get pissed off just to keep from blowing a “bp” gasket. The steam needs to be released! The body of the material in Mr. Kranzler’s article is very good (no bp problems there), but the title!!!! The absurd title of the article is a ‘bp’ nightmare, “When Central Bank Intervention Fails, The System Will Implode!” Don’t know who’s idea the title was, but it obviously hit that ‘dog collar shock invisible truth line”, and also my ‘bp’.
WHEN it fails? WHEN it fails? It already has damn-it, why can’t anybody admit to that? For proof, I bet you can find a derivative of this headline that was probably available 8 years ago as well, and has since been recycled probably hundreds of times. Yet here we go again. “When?” How about sometime prior to the following, the inventory to sales ratios @ pre-Lehman highs, the BDI (baltic dry index) having cratered, the China Containerized Freight Index having cratered, money velocity in the tank, and real unemployment (for those in the know) well into double digits…..
Damn man, when these indicators fall into the depths of the business toilet bowls, they are not preludes to failure anymore, they are lagging indicators of the depths of the prior failure. The “WHEN it Fails”, was the cause of these record setting horrific numbers, not vice-versa! Wolf Gray
When???? Really …. do we need to ask "WHEN?" Again? I like to read Mr. Kranzler, he is a smart guy, and does some great interviews as well, and next to John B Wells has one hell of a good radio voice. And, I am sure he is smarter about economics than myself. But, if we assume yours truly is correct, and “the when” is well well after the fact, what allows this timing question to be perceived as relevant, over & over & over? And, OVER!!!!!!!
As far as I am concerned, the view is panoramic & simple, just get outside the frickin’ box so you can see it! Apparently no one is doing that, or better yet is allowed to admit they are doing that, or the dog collar will light their asses up! That is where the best “common sense view” can be found. Clearly the “Central Bank System” failed in 2008, and it has been papered over ever since, and now with the real economic indicators screaming that to be the case, it is time to go back, and retrieve the “WHEN” from where it belongs, in the dad-gummed past. For example……..
Keeping with the sporting season, what if the 3 refs on the basketball floor were all relatives of the coach of one of the competing teams. And, worse yet, what if the starting players on this team were sons of the refs, and the coach? Ya think this game might be rigged? So from a sports handicapper perspective would you factor this into the betting line? Duh huh!. Ain’t no need in waiting to the end of the game to see who won in this one folks. The game was over almost before it started.
By comparison, to not factor in the money laundering completed, via illegal King Dollar protection rackets, would also render the entire “Pre-game” analysis of the economic game, impotent. I hate to harp on this over & over, but good lord, what does it take to understand that this technical analysis is utterly meaningless, without factoring all the critical variables (credit to Rob Kirby for also expressing these views). Including corrupt ones that are not within the “invisible truth line”. Let’s set the stage with a 250 billion dollar example……..
Guys like Harry "Daffy Deflation" Dent drive me nuts with their, "no retail inflation", the dollar is the ultimate safe haven, bullshit analysis. Especially when they can't see, one simple example, one of many by the way, but this one is with the headlights of a freight train carrying a “250 billion dollar cargo of treasuries,” to be dumped. Return to sender style, with extreme prejudice. Which caused the treasury price to do what? To answer this think “ILLOGICALLY”, yep the ”PRICE TO GO UP & THE YIELD TO GO DOWN!!!" Hello out there, it appears there is some rigging of the "King Dollar’s basketball Game”! The refs. are bought off, and clearly they are biased. BTW the 10 yr. is just below 1.80%…!!!!!! Nothing like that dollar strength I tell ya, to prop up the debt markets! Yeah, you betcha!
Pricing via supply & demand 101: For RMer’s this is repetitive, but it bears repeating, “strong momentum & volume in buying”…. drives the prices of the item in question up, and the opposite applies when tied to “SELLING,” which drives prices down. In normal markets, even recent markets, volumes of 10% of the aforementioned treasury bond dump would have caused the originator, the US, some great pain. Hey I go it, I forgot something! I forgot, the US manufacturing juggernaut is so so so powerful that those bonds just got consumed via gigantic USSA “productivity absorption”. Come-on-man!
I don't care if it isn't the ESF (exchange stabilization fund, as preached by yours truly) absorbing this level of a “train treasury cargo dump,” it still clearly indicates there is a hidden illegal dollar "hidey-hole" out of the view of the msm, and "by and large" it appears to be out of view of the alternative media as well. Maybe an assist from the ole' shock dog collar is to blame. But, it ain’t out of the view of anybody using good ole’ fashion “common horse sense”.
Whether it’s the ESF, or some other entity, some of these buyers of US debt like Belgium (a member of the esteemed BLiCS) have to have assistance to handle the level of US debt absorption on their balance sheets (note there are others like Belgium as well). Hello, enter the ESF (using the Fed), & or some organization akin to the ESF. But, sometimes you can’t continue to stuff US debt. via these supposed “above board” (yeah right) sources with continual covert funding. Thus the absurdity of the upside down price action of an, “on the door step surprise delivery of 250 billion dollars of your debt”.
None of this, let me repeat myself, none of this, will ever be corrected until we get our minds past this invisible line of corruption, and around the fact we are so corrupt, that Al Capone would blush over our illegal banking exploits. Hell if he were still alive he would be taking notes, from the masters...! This also clearly seems to include the alternative media, with their obligatory Federal reserve analysis.
Quit analyzing a neutered entity, the Federal Reserve, it’s balance sheets, and any attached technical jargon. "The Federal Reserve & the central banks" have been neutered. That's right neutered, if you analyze the surface of what they report, it might as well be done by a kindergartener. It is frickin’ meaningless. I love this 'bs', like from CN’BS’ (the alt. media ain't much better), “after analyzing the Fed’s minutes it would appear that,..blah blah blah blah blah blah!”…….."It would appear to be a pile of crap, that is what it appears to be." As quoted from that great philosopher Wolf Gray.
If we keep insisting on listening to the “Fed Speak”, let’s give em’ a damn slogan “Stupid is as Stupid Does!” Let’s put Forrest Gump in as Fed Chairman, it couldn’t be any worse…….
Otherwise, I will let the teenage genius of a young Jonny Lang do the talking, “Just go ahead & lie to me & tell me everything is all right”….
Back to the on the ground analogy of the sporting season. What difference does it make with respect to the final score of the basketball game, if the entire outcome is rigged from ground zero, by paid off relatives? All the analysis is meaningless, especially after the opposing team’s starting five fouled out in the first 3 minutes of the first half! And by comparison, predictions on the outcome of the western "business/financial" world is equally meaningless unless the largest factors that would effect it, are taken into "full disclosure". Which would have to Include the illegal ones, or ones that shade the true outcome, like all the refs having sons on only one of the team’s starting five.
Thus the importance of the BDI ‘dips’, money velocity ‘craterings’, and "real" retail sales number ‘collapses’, that are all under the auspices of "Economic Mother Nature”! As RMer’s know these are truly some of the “measuring sticks” that will give us that wake up call. Sorry, already have of course!
Kranzler’s text, as usual is on point. But might he, as well as others, now also be avoiding “outing” the true actual level of corruption in the western economic machine (again he may not be in charge of the article’s title). It is like there is an invisible “force field” that stops most people from reporting the true level of corruption in the western business empire. A level that can't be admitted to, a level that paints us as one of the most corrupt "business/economic" entities in world history. Capone is still blushing, but furiously taking notes..
Again, the above link is on point, except for one thing, what if the ESF, or whoever, wasn’t in the background absorbing “dollar paper” illegally? When would “WHEN” be then folks? How about long long ago. I would suspect, that had these covert methods of debt absorption never existed at all, "Lehman" would have happened long before 2008. Oh well……Wolf Gray
Confucius aside: Ah well what do I know? After all it's not like the banking system failed at a level where it would need an infusion of something on the order of 800 billion dollars or so to keep it's doors open. Now that would be a failure.........Duh Huh! Or a like a basketball game that needed 3 paid off refs. to complete the victory.
Hey no problem “we the people” cheered, and all those in the stands were served up a “shit sandwich” of a “economic/basketball” game. To admit that the outcome of the game was totally rigged, would mean those in attendance were idiots for cheering, and going to the game to begin with. Who wants to admit to that?
Game summary: The start of this corrupt basketball game, for comparison, was the 2008 Lehman event, and the drama to the final score is being controlled by the illegal refs, or for comparison, the ESF or whatever the hell else is out there, to commit “economic scoring fraud”….!!! So keep on cheering everyone, it ain’t going to matter, no one is listening anyway. They are far too busy taking “selfies”….! Morons!
End of another rant, but not without a postscript link, that also seems to indicate something is starting to stink, and scare the PPPTB. Check this one out…..
Regarding the above link, if it walks like a duck & quacks like a duck, then guess what? It’s a duck. I don't care where this type information comes from, common sense leans toward it being the truth. Going back to our basketball analogy, if the refs & the relative numbers just don't add up, then an alternative explanation, by default, is necessary. If the time frame to rectify the numbers anomaly, stretches towards an infinite time frame, it is time to walk away from "The Story & The Analysis & The Story Teller" (Wolf Gray Sr. & Grandpa Wolf Gray).
If important life changing decisions revolve around "The Story & The Analysis", I would submit to you, it is time to start reading "roguemoney.net", or whatever source jives with your common senses.
What I am detecting is that no one wants to be the one caught crying “wolf” too early. Alternative media dudes have been spanked like hell for that of late. It looks like the new strategy is to wait until the blood hits the streets. Who wants to be cheering at that game? By the way tickets are still available, for those foolish enough to buy into the paper game. If you are not so foolish, trade them in on GSBC’s, it’s the way you should roll as well.
Cover Your Arse:
From the first paragraph of this installment…..
“We always come out on top, nothing bad is going to happen”.
The emotions that surround this very view point closed more paper deals for me, than you could shake a stick at. The gentleman who trained me (r.i.p. 2006) in my business pursuits, made one point loud and clear. Always find a way to word your ‘arguments/negotiations’ so the guy on the other side of the negotiating table sees you in a position of strength. Summary: phrase questions so he or she would feel foolish saying, “No!”
For example, if the potential client was wavering a bit, I would insert a variation of the following line at just the right moment, “Do you think capitalism, that is promoted the American way, will prevail during the rest of your lifetime?” Typical client response, “You are damned right I do!” Me, now from a position of strength, “Well then partner, let’s put some money to work on the American way of life!” Normally the deal was done, and money was about to be transferred to the paper investment vehicle being laid on the table. But one day a business meeting with a pretty hard arsed client of mine, changed that “red white & blue, bs’ close” forever, and had me rethink “past performance vs. future results”.
Bear with me folks, this will tie into the merging of speculative, and "on the ground" paper failures that redefine, past performance's relationship to future results.....! As literally I was my own rat in the paper experiment laboratory. I just needed to step outside the box to get a proper view on things!
For a little over a decade from the late nineties until “post-Lehman in 2008”, I made a pretty good living selling retirement programs to small business owners. Individuals who made low six figure annual incomes, up to a few that were making 7 figures. In or around 2011, I was having a “business pow-wow” with a potential client (one of the 7 figure guys) with some real paper problems, and by this point I had his ear, thus I knew I was going to do some business with him. His problems were many: 8 figure estate (estate tax problems); testy marriage, but loved his kids; not enough life insurance to provide an easy business transition to junior family members & equalize things to others who cared little about his business; zero in the retirement (paper that is) cubbyhole; & one of his lone 2 positives was zero debt (though that is a big positive though). He also had tons of cash sitting “idle” in the banks in relationship to his annual income, the second positive, but a negative as well....!
Several plans were on the table, but once aggressive types like this guy have seen the overall plan, they like to stick to a few simple solutions at a time. First up, on the table, putting his idle cash to work. Followed by a solution to equalize his estate, to his non-business oriented daughter, as compared to his more business oriented nephews. Without getting too detailed, the first thing I showed him was a plan, that I used to say needed high octane fuel, as in lots of money, to feed it properly. I used to joke with clients that it was a Ferrari. Feed it right, and it would run like a scalded dog (feeding, meaning lots of cash input). Finally & several meetings later, the paperwork is on the table, and the deal was done………….next the closing scene…..
Setting the paper business landscape: It was 2011, and the equity market had run pretty long, and hard. “The Ferrari” was revving loud in the background, and it was now time to properly allocate his mutual fund choices. This should be pretty straight forward, as his suitability profile was extremely aggressive. The problem was, he was about to hit me with a stumbling block, via a very simple question, “What would you do, WG?” My answer, “The market is pretty heady, I would park things in the money market.” Client, “Wait a second dude, I got a Ferrari here, and you are putting 87 octane in it, that don’t make any damned sense!” After a long pause, I looked at him, and said, “You are right, let’s get you a Chevy, and make things right for you & your daughter at the same time.” The deal went forward, I made a third of what I expected to, and he put more of his idle cash to work in marketing his business.
More importantly I realized, I couldn’t look people in the face anymore, and recommend from a position of strength, any investments in any sort of paper. The fundamental metrics, had died, and they died several years ago. Past paper indices performances (excluding the NASDAQ, it was still well below 5K) regardless of the time frames (typically great depression forward) were totally “pro-paper”, but now I understood the "real" fundamentals weren’t pro-paper. Thus……
Past performance was not indicative, not anymore in my mind, of future results. And, even though the disclaimer says it shouldn’t be, it is still the only way any buyer can reference his or her buying decisions. After all, it is a blasted intangible, what else are they going to reference? The disclaimer is nothing more than “cover your arse” language that is part of almost any investment prospectus, designed to cover the tracks of the investment vehicle, and it’s designers.
For the record, I am not some shining light, who grew a clean conscience, and backed out of paper promotions to my potential clients. Not hardly so, clean of conscience, was I. In the interest of full disclosure, I also had convenience supplementation, as in, I was at a position in life where I didn’t have to have the income anymore.
I was my own test guinea pig, on the micro level, and based on the first “Hard Asset Tip” in this installment, and in my last installment featuring a top level Wolf Pack financial professional, the macro is now effecting the micro world, and vice-versa. It did a guinea pig in 2011, named Wolf Gray. The shit is still flowing downhill, it always does at first, but when it counts the most, it starts to pool up, big time. The heat is on, and the loose ends are being tied up or taken care of. And, from my perspective, it is prior to some form of restrictions on your monies.
The door “opener & closer” of, “Do you think capitalism, that is promoted the American way, will prevail during the rest of your lifetime?”, had now lost it’s momentum. The truth behind the statement, which gave me a position of strength at the negotiation tables nearly 100% of the time in the past, was D.O.A. Why, now? Because the guys I typically dealt with, could look me in the eyes, and detect weakness in a heartbeat. I didn’t believe in paper anymore. And if you don’t think, proper usage of that former line of mine is a “position of strength winner,” try attending a major professional sporting event, and witness the pre-game emotional hoopla when the US fighter jets fly in formation overhead. I rest my case.
Want some more proof that the paper game is in it’s final stages, ones that aren’t filled with the folksy Wolf Gray speculative ramblings, using himself as the guinea pig, then check out the following hard core statistics.
It has been reported of late, from very reliable sources, that business inventories are on the rise, and the inventory to sales ratio is the worst since the 2008 Lehman debacle. In fact some sources put it at a worse ratio than “pre-Lehman” failure. When you place this side by side with a verifiable collapse in the freight indices, logic dictates “business sucks”…..! Strange when you consider that businesses are not attempting to slow their inventory builds. I smell a bunch of business dudes who need to step outside the box for a fresh look at things.
To Wolf Gray this indicates business schools that teach anything constructive, along with business common sense, have left the building. All of this can be perfectly illustrated by the inventory glut in the auto industry. As harped on many times recently, and for good reason. It is still one of the most important industrial (though failing compared to prior years) businesses in the USSA. Sadly, auto dealerships are required, based on some of their contracts to take on inventory (from the manufacturers) regardless of the lack of reasonable sales numbers. So look for more consolidations or failures this year in the retail auto business.
But, as usual none of this has hit the USSA, with the knock out blow it deserves, due to the “hypochondriac” inspired stalwart GDP. That being said, and as RMer’s know, the GDP is still puny, especially when stacked against the real inflation, thus making the actual GDP quite negative. The GDP stays positive with a “hypochondriac assist”, thanks to the USSA healthcare business sector. I will refrain from calling it a GDP contributor or industry, as that defies proper business decorum. To hell with decorum, it is bullshit!
Additionally, a recent review of my“Hat Trick Letter” from Dr. Jim Willie also reveals, with no surprises, that the retail drug industry is in the “Big time Black”. Thus the “hypochondriac inspired GDP”. As an insult to our intelligence, even our economic bankster led brethren in Europe aren’t nearly as prescription drug dependent as we are. The USSA has to be the dumbest in this category of any nation in the world. A personal observation is noteworthy here…..
Last week I had to visit a large, (very large btw, big as some hospitals) neurological medical facility, to discuss the care of a family member. The Wolf Gray has the responsibility of being the “HCPOA” (health care power of attorney) for this family member. Among the entire Wolf Gray family, up-line & down-line, this is the only instance where I truly believe medication is a necessity. Past installments have probably made it clear that I believe prescription drugs should be the last, the very last, resort to a physical or mental ailment (that disclosure is somewhat necessary here). In the 5 or 6 times I have been to this facility to discuss proper care of this family member, one thing is abundantly clear, nearly 100% the people I see coming & going are damn near “Zombie-like”. Are these drug induced states entirely necessary? Possibly, but I suspect some of it isn’t. And, the worst thing is they are typically by themselves.....Deducing: as in driving themselves somewhere….!!! Damned scary indeed. You want to be entertained, or somewhat shocked, then go to one of these “neurological” places, sit in the lobby, and see if what you witness, mirrors what I just reported?
A Quick Natural Medicinal Hard Asset Tip:
If you are fortunate enough to live in an area where birch trees thrive, don’t treat these beauties like wood only, they can serve as a natural medicine cabinet.
“Birch sap, birch water, or blood, had a folk reputation for breaking kidney or bladder stone and treating skin conditions and rheumatic diseases. It can be drunk in spring as a refreshing and cleansing tonic, clearing the sluggishness of winter from the system. The fermented sap also makes birch wine and country beers and spirits.”
“The fresh leaves or buds of birch offer a powerful but pleasant tea for general detoxing, urinary complaints, cystitis, rheumatic and arthritic troubles, and gout. Some herbalists add a pinch of sodium bicarbonate to improve the tea’s ability to cut high uric acid levels. Any condition of fluid retention, such as cardiac or renal edema and dropsy, will be helped by the tea. Birch is rich in potassium, so that (like dandelion) it does not deplete the body of this mineral in the way that medical diuretics do.” ……. Mother Earth News (01/24/2014)
Back to the Phony Economy Ranting………
A short repetitive rant that started from my first rants on RM almost two years ago, is worthwhile here. “Healthcare” is not an industry, and to be honest neither is “home building”. Certainly not industries tied to needs based products or solutions that truly drive economies in positive directions over several decades. In fact they are merely the beneficiaries of true needs based manufacturing and/or industrial expansions. And, to boot it all we decided to blow bubbles in the businesses that back the both of them, health insurance & mortgages. Way to go! Good shortsighted thinking, brainiacs in charge.
Oh by the way, I am sure that with the USSA’s declining wage base (even the BLS doesn’t hide that fact), with respect to underreported inflation, we will have no problem consuming our way right out of this inventory build. Yeah right! Nothing like good ole’ solid business common sense, and fundamentals to inspire a howling Wolf Gray rant.
Here is a Wolf Grayism tied to real on the ground business, business that we can all see in full view in the USSA. “You can’t continually force feed positive GDP growth, primarily fueled from service oriented businesses. Businesses that in a proper supply demand economy, should only be the downstream benefactors of real business & manufacturing.”
Well gee wiz WG, we all can see that as well, so what? So true, but many can't see, or at least report, that it is being propped up by phony promoted drug profits & entitlements, via drug induced sicknesses with an assist from a belief that everyone is entitled to a home, and a car. Once these are tapped out, the phony GDP will be tapped out as well. Hmm, who would promote a belief in a positive GDP, supplemented by tax promoted, and or subsidized, and or freely printed money … entitlements? Hey maybe a “Confidence Man”. And, once that well has run dry, might the loose ends need to be tied up. Hey, let's hire us a bunch of retirement fiduciaries to implement super restrictive rules, based in Dodd Frank covert clothing.
In boxing the punch you see coming is far easier to absorb, than the one unseen. Get ready to absorb a punch, It’s coming, prepare yourselves! Wolf Gray
The fight has been raging behind the curtain, and it is about to spill over to the throngs in the audience. Spill over literally, into your lap! Everything from paragraph number one above, down to the last news item listed below, more employment disasters, truly indicates the feeding trough for “all working wolves” is soon to be less than full. Swallow your delusional, self denial egos, and allow outside-the-box, common sense to prevail. Need more on the ground evidence to meet the speculative failures of paper, then.....check out this real item.......
The above should be nothing new to those with a functioning brain stem, it is simply the merging evidence of failures in the micro of the greater macro business world. A macro, like the scene of the Putnam CEO arguing on capitol hill, as he sees the shuttering of the doors to paper promotions. With Boeing as the final news harbinger in this installment, micro or macro, no one wants to get a phone call from one of the executive boys:
I'm just one of the boys
One of the boys
I don't say much but I make a big noise, Mott the Hoople
Conversely: The PPPTB need to pay attention, as that phone call can go both ways, and that my friends might worry these “dip-shits”:
I'm just one of the boys
One of the boys
I don't say much but I make a big noise
It's growing, yeah, it's growing, Mott the Hoople
I have posted this picture as a headline to an earlier installment, but it is applicable here, which wolf will you feed?
Sorry that this turned into a book, but it is just an expression of what I am witnessing, and my background, and experience, said it needed to be explained as best possible. With multiple rants in this case. My RM friend, Jerry5 said once before, “thanks for keeping it real Wolf.” In this case I kept it, “real long”..!
Past performance in the paper realm is now truly irrelevant, so don't go out alone with no cloak of financial common sense, the paper wolves are watching. I can smell them trying to retain control of what they perceive to be their money. How do I know? I was once a good producer, and my business answering machine is still being "LIT UP", with retirement plan vendors & recruiters!
You have been warned once again damn-it, by the on the ground signs all around you, and from my cigar smoke filled office.
Credits to the thoughts of: Opie, Team RM, Jerry5, The Wolf Pack, Rob Kirby, Michael Snyder, "financeandliberty.com", "The Hat Trick Letter", ZeroHedge, Wolf Street (no affiliation), Dave Kranzler, Jeff Healey Band, Jonny Lang, & Mott the Hoople